1. Ukuqonda Ukwehla kwamandla emali
Emhlabeni wokuhweba, ukwehla kwamandla emali aqondene ingamandla akhona yonke indawo alolonga buthule isimo sohambo lwakho lwezezimali. Kufana nomsinga ohamba kancane, ovame ukungabonakali kodwa ohlale usebenza, kancane kancane uqeda amandla okuthenga amadola owasebenze kanzima. Kodwa kuyini ngempela ukwehla kwamandla emali? Emgogodleni walo, izinga izinga elijwayelekile lezintengo zezimpahla namasevisi likhuphuka ngalo, okubangela ukuba amandla okuthenga ohlobo lwemali ehle.
Ukwehla kwamandla kuvame ukukalwa njengokukhuphuka kwamaphesenti onyaka. Njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphuka, idola ngalinye olakho lithenga iphesenti elincane lempahla noma isevisi. Ngoba traders, ukuqonda ukwehla kwamandla emali kubalulekile ngoba kuthinta ngokuqondile izinzuzo ezitshaliwe. Uma ukwehla kwamandla emali kuphezulu, izinga langempela lembuyiselo ekutshalweni kwezimali lingaba ngaphansi kakhulu kunesilinganiso esilinganiselwe sembuyiselo.
Amabhange aphakathi zama ukukhawulela ukwehla kwamandla emali - futhi ugweme ukwehla kwamandla emali - ukuze ugcine umnotho usebenza kahle. Nakuba imiphumela yokwehla kwamandla emali ibanzi, ingenye ebaluleke kakhulu traders umthelela ku amanani entengo. Lapho ibhange elikhulu libona ukwehla kwamandla emali kuphezulu kakhulu, lingase likhuphule izinga lenzalo ukuze libambezele umnotho futhi linciphise ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Njenge trader, kubalulekile ukuqapha izitayela zokwehla kwamandla emali. Kungani? Ngoba a ukwanda okukhulu kwamandla emali kungase kwenze amabhange amakhulu ukuthi anyuse amanani enzalo, okungaholela ekwehleni kwezintengo zesitoko. Ngokuphambene, ukwehla kwamandla emali noma ukwehla kwamandla emali kungaholela emazingeni enzalo aphansi, angakhuphula amanani esitoko. Ngakho-ke, ukuqonda ukwehla kwamandla emali kanye nomthelela wako kuhlelo lwakho lokuhweba kuyisihluthulelo sokwenza izinqumo ezinolwazi ezingakusiza ufinyelele imigomo yakho yezezimali.
Nakuba kungenakwenzeka ukubikezela ikusasa, ukwazi izinga lamanje lokukhuphuka kwamandla emali namandla oshintsho kunganikeza ukuqonda okubalulekile. Ngakho-ke, bheka izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali futhi ulungise isu lakho lokuhweba ngokufanele. Khumbula, emhlabeni wezohwebo, ulwazi lungamandla, futhi ukuqonda ukwehla kwamandla emali kuyithuluzi elinamandla ku-arsenal yakho.
1.1. Incazelo ye-Inflation
Ukwehla kwamandla, igama elivame ukuvela emibuthanweni yezezimali, liwumqondo obucayi lowo traders kudingeka ukubamba. Yilokhu izinga lapho izinga elijwayelekile lamanani ezimpahla namasevisi likhuphuka ngalo, futhi kamuva, amandla okuthenga ayehla.
Ukuyibeka ngamagama alula, ake ucabange ukuthi ungathenga imoto ngo-$20,000 namuhla. Uma ukwehla kwamandla emali bekuzonyuka ngo-2% ngonyaka olandelayo, yona leyo moto ingakubiza u-$20,400. Lokhu kunyuka kuwumphumela wokwehla kwamandla emali.
Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, njengoba izindleko zezimpahla nezinkonzo zikhula, inani ledola lizokwehla ngoba umuntu ngeke akwazi ukuthenga okuningi ngaleyo dollar njengoba ebengase abe nakho lapho izindleko ziphansi. Lokhu kuyisisekelo umthelela wokwehla kwamandla emali emandleni akho okuthenga.
Kubalulekile ukuqaphela lokho ukwehla kwamandla emali akukubi ngokwemvelo. Ukwehla kwamandla emali okumaphakathi kuwuphawu lomnotho onempilo, okhulayo. Amabhizinisi maningi amathuba okuthi akhuphule amaholo lapho ethengisa izimpahla namasevisi amaningi, futhi abathengi maningi amathuba okuthi basebenzise lapho behola kakhulu.
Kodwa-ke, ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu kungadala ukuntengantenga komnotho, kubangele ukuthi abantu banciphise ukusetshenziswa kwemali, okungase kubambezele ukukhula komnotho. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-deflation (i-inflation engemihle) nayo ingaholela ezinkingeni zezomnotho. Lapho amanani ehla, abathengi bavame ukubambezela ukuthenga belindele ukwehla kwentengo okwengeziwe, okungaholela ekwehleni kwesidingo, okubangele amabhizinisi ukuthi anciphise ukukhiqiza futhi okungase kuholele ekuweni komnotho.
Ngakho-ke, ukwehla kwamandla emali kungu-a inkemba esika nhlangothi zombili. Iyingxenye ebalulekile yomnotho onempilo, kodwa idinga ukugadwa futhi ilawulwe ukuze kuvinjelwe izinkinga zomnotho ezingase zibe khona. Njenge trader, ukuqonda ukwehla kwamandla emali kuyisihluthulelo sokwenza izinqumo ezinolwazi, njengoba akuthinti nje umnotho kuphela kodwa namazinga enzalo, nawo athinta imakethe yamasheya.
1.2. Izimbangela Zokwehla kwamandla emali
Uma kukhulunywa ngezimbangela zokwehla kwamandla emali, kubalulekile ukuqonda ukuthi akusona isenzakalo esingahleliwe, kodwa umphumela wezinto ezithile zomnotho. I-Demand-pull inflation kungesinye sezizathu ezinjalo, ezenzeka lapho isidingo sezimpahla namasevisi sidlula ukunikezwa kwazo. Lokhu kungalingani kungadalwa ukwanda kokusetshenziswa kwemali kwabathengi, ukusetshenziswa kwemali kukahulumeni, noma ukutshalwa kwezimali kwamanye amazwe.
Ngokolunye uhlangothi, i-cost-push inflation kubangwa lapho izindleko zokukhiqiza zikhuphuka, okuholela ekwehleni kokunikezwayo. Lokhu kungaba ngenxa yokwenyuka kwamaholo, noma ukwenyuka kwentengo yezinto ezingavuthiwe. Indaba yakudala yemali eningi ejaha izimpahla ezimbalwa kakhulu.
I-inflation eyakhelwe ngaphakathi ngesinye isizathu, okuwukwehla kwamandla emali okulindeleke ukuthi kwenzeke esikhathini esizayo. Lokhu okulindelekile kungaholela ekugcwalisekeni kwesiprofetho, njengoba izisebenzi zifuna amaholo aphezulu futhi amabhizinisi akhuphule amanani ngokulindela ukwenyuka kwamandla emali.
Ekugcineni, hyperinflation kuyindlela eyedlulele kunazo zonke yokwehla kwamandla emali, ngokuvamile okubangelwa uhulumeni onyathelisa amanani emali eqile. Lokhu kungaholela ekwenyukeni okusheshayo nokungalawuleki kwamanani, ngokuvamile okuholela ekuntengantengeni komnotho.
Ngayinye yalezi zimbangela ingenzeka ngokuzimela, noma zingasebenzisana futhi zandise enye nenye, okuholela ezimweni ezinzima kakhulu zokwehla kwamandla emali. Ukuqonda lezi zimbangela kuyisihluthulelo sokuzulazula esimweni sezezimali nokwenza izinqumo zokuhweba ezinolwazi.
1.3. Izinhlobo Zokwehla Nokwehla kwamandla emali
Lapho singena sijula emhlabeni wokwehla kwamandla emali, sihlangana nezinhlobo ezahlukene ngayinye ephethe isethi yazo ehlukile yezimpawu. I-Creeping Inflation, okwaziwa nangokuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali okuncane, ukukhuphuka kwamanani okuhamba kancane nokuqhubekayo, okuvame ukubonakala njengophawu lomnotho onempilo. Lolu hlobo lokwehla kwamandla emali luvamise ukuba phakathi kuka-1-3% ngonyaka.
I-Inflation ehambayo, ngakolunye uhlangothi, yilapho izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali likhuphuka, ngokuvamile phakathi kuka-3-10% ngonyaka. Lokhu kuwuphawu oluyisixwayiso kosomnotho, okukhombisa ukuthi umnotho ukhula ngokushesha.
Khona-ke kukhona Ukwehla kwamandla emali, okuyilapho amazinga okwehla kwamandla emali efinyelela ukuphakama kuka-10-1000% ngonyaka. Lesi isimo somnotho esinzima esiholela ekutheni abantu balahlekelwe ukholo emalini njengoba inani lemali lehla ngokushesha.
Ifomu eliyingozi kakhulu ayehle kakhulu amandla emali. Yilapho ukwenyuka kwamanani kungalawuleki kangangokuthi umqondo wokwehla kwamandla emali awusho lutho. Amanani angakhuphuka ngezigidi noma ngezigidigidi zamaphesenti ngonyaka. Izibonelo ezidumile zihlanganisa ngemva kweMpi Yezwe I eJalimane futhi muva nje, iZimbabwe neVenezuela.
Okokugcina, sinawo I-stagflation futhi deflation. I-Stagflation yisimo esiyivelakancane esihlanganisa ukwehla kwamandla emali, ukuntenga komnotho, kanye nokuntuleka kwemisebenzi okuphezulu. Ukwehla kwamandla emali, okuphambene nokwehla kwamandla emali, ukwehla kwezinga lentengo elivamile lezimpahla namasevisi, ngokuvamile okubangelwa ukuncipha kokunikezwa kwemali noma isikweletu.
Uhlobo ngalunye lokwehla kwamandla emali luza nesethi yalo yezinselelo futhi ludinga okuhlukile amasu ukuphatha. Ukuqonda lezi zinhlobo kubalulekile traders ukuzulazula endaweni yezomnotho ngempumelelo.
2. Umthelela Wokwehla kwamandla emali
Ukwehla kwamandla, lelo gama lezomnotho elibonakala lilihle, linamandla amakhulu emhlabeni wokuhweba. Yingcweti yonodoli othule, edonsa izintambo ngemuva kwesigcawu, ethonya ngobuqili ukwehla nokugeleza kwemakethe. Kodwa lenzani ngempela? Asihlehlise ikhethini sibukisise.
Ngendlela elula kakhulu, ukwehla kwamandla emali aqondene izinga izinga elijwayelekile lentengo yezimpahla namasevisi likhuphuka ngalo, futhi ngemva kwalokho, amandla okuthenga ehla. Kufana nentela efihliwe eqeda inani lemali yakho. Zicabange unebhili ye-$100 namuhla. Esikhathini sonyaka, uma izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali lingu-2%, leyo $100 efanayo izobiza u-$98 kuphela ngokwamandla okuthenga.
Umthelela we-inflation ekuhwebeni miningi. Kokunye, kungaba nomthelela ku- amanani entengo. Amabhange amakhulu ngokuvamile azama ukulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali aphezulu ngokunyusa amanani enzalo. Lokhu kwenza ukuboleka kubize kakhulu, kubambezele umsebenzi wezomnotho futhi, kunciphise nokwehla kwamandla emali. I-flip side? Amazinga enzalo aphezulu angenza ukutshalwa kwezimali okuthile, njengamabhondi, kukhange nakakhulu, okungase kuphambukise imali kude nemakethe yamasheya.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali nakho kungathinta i exchange rate. Uma izwe linezinga eliphezulu lokwehla kwamandla emali uma liqhathaniswa namanye, inani lemali yalo lingase lehle. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi, njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhula, amandla okuthenga ohlobo lwemali ayehla, okwenza kungafiseleki kakhulu ukubamba. Lokhu kungaholela ekwehleni kwezinga lokushintshisana kwayo.
Izinzuzo zenkampani nazo azithinteki ekuthintekeni kokwehla kwamandla emali. Njengoba izindleko zezimpahla namasevisi zikhuphuka, izinkampani zingase zibhekane nezindleko eziphakeme zokusebenza, ezingadla inzuzo yazo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, bangase bakwazi ukudlulisela lezi zindleko kubathengi ngokunyusa amanani abo. Ngakho-ke, umthelela emalini etholwayo ungaba isikhwama esixubile.
Nakuba ukwehla kwamandla emali kungase kubonakale njengesikhohlakali emhlabeni wokuhweba, akuzona izindaba ezimbi ngaso sonke isikhathi. Ukwehla kwamandla emali okusesilinganisweni kuvame ukubonakala njengophawu lomnotho onempilo, okhulayo. Kulapho amazinga e-inflation enyuka ngokungalindelekile noma engena e-freefall (deflation) lapho traders kudingeka iqaphe kakhulu.
Ukuqonda umthelela wokwehla kwamandla emali kubalulekile ngoba traders. Kufana yokufunda ukufunda umoya lapho uhamba ngomkhumbi. Awukwazi ukukulawula, kodwa uma ukuqondisisa, ungasebenzisa amandla ako ukuze uqondise ukutshalwa kwezimali kwakho endaweni efanele. Ngakho-ke, bheka isimo sezulu emkhathizwe futhi ulungise oseyili bakho njengoba kudingeka.
2.1. Imithelela Emnothweni
Kuthiyetha enkulu yomnotho womhlaba, ukwehla kwamandla emali kuwumlingisi ongadlala iqhawe noma isigebengu, kuye ngokusebenza kwawo. Ukuqonda imiphumela yokwehla kwamandla emali emnothweni kubalulekile ngoba traders, njengoba ithonya ngokuqondile inani lemali, izindleko zezimpahla namasevisi, futhi ekugcineni, izinqumo zokutshala izimali.
Okokuqala, ukwehla kwamandla emali kungaba uphawu lomnotho onempilo. Uma amanani enyuka ngokumaphakathi, ngokuvamile kukhombisa ukuthi umnotho uyakhula. Amabhizinisi azizwa eqiniseka ukunyusa amanani njengoba ebona ukukhuphuka kwesidingo semikhiqizo namasevisi awo. Lokhu kukhuthaza ukukhiqizwa, okuholela ekwandeni kwemisebenzi namaholo aphezulu. Lena yi- uhlangothi oluhle lokwehla kwamandla emali, okuvame ukubizwa ngokuthi 'i-benign' inflation.
Nokho, lapho izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali likhuphuka kakhulu, liba amandla abhubhisayo. Lokhu kwaziwa ngokuthi hyperinflation. Kulesi simo, inani lemali lehla ngokushesha, futhi amanani akhuphuka ngesivinini esishaqisayo. Izindleko zezinto zansuku zonke zingase zingafinyeleleki kumuntu ovamile, okuholela ekwehleni kwezinga lokuphila. Kungase futhi kubangele ukuthi amabhizinisi anciphise ukukhiqiza ngenxa yokungaqiniseki, okuholela ekulahlekeni kwemisebenzi kanye nokuntenga komnotho.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali nakho kuba nomthelela amanani entengo ebekwe amabhange amakhulu. Uma ukwehla kwamandla emali kuphakeme, amabhange amakhulu ngokuvamile akhuphula amanani enzalo ukuze ehlise umnotho futhi abuyisele ukwehla kwamandla emali ngaphansi kokulawula. Lokhu kungenza ukuboleka kubize kakhulu, okungaba nomthelela omkhulu ekutshalweni kwezimali nasekusebenziseni imali.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwehla kwamandla emali kungaholela entweni eyaziwa ngokuthi 'i-bracket creep'. Kulapho abantu bephonswa kubakaki abaphezulu bentela ngenxa yokwenyuka kwemali yabo engenayo, nakuba iholo labo langempela (amandla okuthenga omholo wabo) kungenzeka alishintshile.
Ukuze traders, ukuqonda imiphumela yokwehla kwamandla emali emnothweni kubalulekile. Kuthonya ukusebenza kwezigaba ezahlukene zempahla, inani lezimali, nempilo yomnotho womhlaba. Kungamandla ayinkimbinkimbi, aguquguqukayo angaqhubeza ukukhula noma abangele ukuphazamiseka kwezomnotho.
2.2. Umthelela Kubatshalizimali
Ukwehla kwamandla igama elivame ukuthumela amakhaza phansi komgogodla wabatshalizimali. Kodwa kungani? Konke kumayelana namandla okuthenga. Lapho ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphuka, inani lemali liyehla, futhi umthelela ungaba mkhulu. Cabanga nje uno-$100 namuhla, futhi unyaka kusukela manje, ngenxa yokwehla kwamandla emali, kubiza u-$95 kuphela. Lelo iphilisi elinzima ukuligwinya kunoma yimuphi umtshali-zimali.
Izinzuzo zokutshala izimali akudingi nje kuphela ukufanisa kodwa ukwedlula ukwehla kwamandla emali ukuze kukhule kwangempela. Uma utshalomali lwakho lubuyisela u-2% omncane kodwa ukwehla kwamandla emali ku-3%, ulahlekelwa amandla. Kufana nokugijima kumshini wokunyathelisa ogijima kancane; kufanele ugijime ngokushesha ukuze nje uhlale endaweni.
Kodwa akukhona konke ukubhubha nosizi. Ukwehla kwamandla emali nakho kungaveza amathuba. Izigaba ezithile zempahla, njenge ukuthengisa izindlu futhi Izimpahla, imvamisa yenza kahle ngezikhathi zokwehla kwamandla emali. Lezi zingasebenza njengothango, zisize ukuvikela iphothifoliyo yakho emiphumeleni egugulekayo yokwehla kwamandla emali.
izibopho, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ingaba inkemba esika nhlangothi zombili. Nakuba behlinzeka ngemali engenayo evamile, baphinde bazwele ekwenyukeni kwamandla emali. Uma okulindelwe ngokwenyuka kwamandla emali kukhuphuka, inani lamabhondi lingancipha, kuthinte iphothifoliyo yakho. Kubalulekile ukuqonda lokhu kuguquguquka lapho utshala imali kumabhondi.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali nakho kunomthelela oqondile amanani entengo. Amabhange amakhulu avame ukukhuphula izinga lenzalo ukuze alwe nokwehla kwamandla emali, okungaholela ezindlekweni eziphakeme zokuboleka. Lokhu kungathinta inzuzo yezinkampani, futhi ngenxa yalokho, izintengo zazo zesitoko.
Ukuqonda umthelela wokwehla kwamandla emali ekutshaleni kwakho imali kubalulekile ukuze uphumelele ngokwezimali zesikhathi eside. Akukhona nje ngezinombolo ezisesikrinini; kumayelana nokuthi lezo zinombolo zizokuthenga ini esikhathini esizayo. Kumayelana nokugcina nokukhulisa ingcebo yakho ngokwangempela. Futhi yingakho wonke abatshalizimali bedinga ukubhekisisa ukwehla kwamandla emali.
3. Ukuphatha Ukwehla kwamandla emali ekuhwebeni
Ukuhweba lapho ubhekene nokwehla kwamandla emali kungase kubonakale njengokuzulazula endaweni yezimayini. Kuyisimo sezezimali esingacekela phansi amandla akho okuthenga futhi sinciphise inani langempela lezimali ozitshalile. Kodwa, ngamasu afanele kanye nokuqonda okucacile, ungaguqula lokhu kusongela okungaba yithuba.
Isihluthulelo esisodwa sokulawula ukwehla kwamandla emali ekuhwebeni ukuqonda umthelela wako ezigabeni ezahlukene zempahla. Ngokuvamile, Amasheya zivame ukwenza kahle ngezikhathi zokwehla kwamandla emali njengoba izinkampani zingakhuphula amanani azo ukuze zihambisane nezindleko ezikhuphukayo. Ngokuphambene, amabhondi, nezinkokhelo zawo zenzalo engaguquki, angalahlekelwa inani njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphuka. Yingakho ukuhlukanisa iphothifoliyo yakho ezigabeni ezihlukahlukene zempahla kungasiza ekwehliseni ubungozi obuhlobene nokwehla kwamandla emali.
yezimbiwa ingesinye isigaba sempahla esivame ukuchuma ngesikhathi sokwehla kwamandla emali. Njengoba amanani entengo enyuka, kanjalo nenani lempahla esetshenziswayo ukuzikhiqiza. Ukutshala imali ezimpahleni ezifana igolide, uwoyela, noma imikhiqizo yezolimo ngakho-ke inganikeza uthango ngokumelene nokwehla kwamandla emali.
Nokho, akukhona nje kuphela kulokho otshala kukho, kodwa futhi nini futhi kanjani. Isikhathi sakho trades ukuthatha isikhangisovantage yezindlela zokwehla kwamandla emali, nokusebenzisa izibambiso ezivikelwe ngokwenyuka kwamandla emali njenge-Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) ingaba amasu asebenzayo. Lezi zibambiso ziklanyelwe ukukhuphuka ivelu nge-inflation, zinikeze isilinganiso sangempela sembuyiselo.
Okokugcina, ungawabukeli phansi amandla we ulwazi. Ukuhlala unolwazi mayelana nezitayela zezomnotho nezinguquko zenqubomgomo kungakunikeza isiqalo ekulungiseni isu lakho lokuhweba ukuze ulwe nokwehla kwamandla emali. Ngokubheka izinkomba ezifana ne-Consumer Price Index (CPI) kanye ne-Producer Price Index (PPI), ungalindela ukwehla kwamandla emali futhi uhlele tradengokufanele.
Khumbula, ukwehla kwamandla emali akusona isitha okufanele usabe, kodwa isici okufanele usiqonde futhi usilawule. Ngendlela efanele, ungavikela iphothifoliyo yakho yokuhweba emiphumeleni yayo emibi engaba khona futhi usebenzise namathuba eliwavezayo.
3.1. Ukutshalwa kwezimali kobufakazi bokwehla kwamandla emali
Lapho sibhekene nokwenyuka kwamandla emali, savvy tradeNgiyazi ukuthi utshalomali oluthile lungasebenza njengesikebhe esiqinile olwandle lokungaqiniseki kwezomnotho. Ukuthengisa izindlu, ngokwesibonelo, sekuyisikhathi eside kuthathwa njengothango oluthembekile ekulweni nokwehla kwamandla emali. Njengoba izindleko zokuphila zikhuphuka, kanjalo nenani lezakhiwo kanye nemali yokuqasha. Ngokufanayo, yezimbiwa njengegolide, silver, namafutha, anenani elingaphakathi, avame ukukhuphuka intengo njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphuka.
Kodwa-ke, akuzona zonke izimali ezitshaliwe ezivikela ukwehla kwamandla emali eziyimpahla ebonakalayo. Ukuphepha Kwempahla Yemali Evikelwe Ukwanda Kwemali (AMACEBISO), ngokwesibonelo, amabhondi akhishwe uhulumeni ashintsha inani kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali. Njengoba i-Consumer Price Index (CPI) ikhuphuka, kanjalo nenani lama-TIPS, ukuqinisekisa ukuthi utshalomali lwakho luhambisana nomnotho.
Kodwa kuthiwani ngemakethe yamasheya? Nokho, imikhakha ethile ngempela inganikeza ukuvikeleka kwamandla emali. Amasheya ezimbonini ezifana namandla, ukudla, nezinye izinto ezibalulekile bavame ukubona amanani abo enyuka nokwehla kwamandla emali, njengoba izindleko zezimpahla abazikhiqizayo zikhuphuka.
Futhi masingakhohlwa mayelana Ukutshalwa Kwezimali Kwangaphandle. Ukutshala imali emnothweni lapho ukwehla kwamandla emali kuphansi noma kuzinzile kunganikeza izinga elithile lokuvikela. Njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhula ekhaya, lezi zimali ezitshaliwe zingase zenyuke ivelu lapho ziguqulwa zibuyiselwe emalini yakho yasekhaya.
Khumbula, Nokho, ukuthi zonke izimali eza nazo ingozi, futhi ukusebenza kwangaphambilini akubonisi imiphumela yesikhathi esizayo. Kubalulekile ukuhlukanisa iphothifoliyo yakho futhi uxhumane nomeluleki wezezimali ukuze uqinisekise ukuthi isu lakho lokutshala imali lihambisana nemigomo yakho yezezimali kanye nokubekezelela ubungozi.
3.2. Amasu Okuhweba Ngezikhathi Zokwenyuka Kwamanani Amanani
Ukuqonda amandla emakethe ngezikhathi zokwehla kwamandla emali kungaba yinto eshintshayo traders. Isu lokuqala lizungeza ukutshala imali emikhakheni ephumelelayo ngesikhathi sokwehla kwamandla emali. Ngokuvamile, lokhu kufaka phakathi amandla, ukudla, nezinye izinto ezithengiswayo izintengo zazo zivame ukukhuphuka nokwehla kwamandla emali.
Izibambiso zeholo elingaguquki, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ivame ukwenza kabi ngezikhathi zokwehla kwamandla emali. Isizathu silula: izinzuzo ezingaguquki abazinikezayo zilahlekelwa inani njengoba izindleko zokuphila zikhuphuka. Ngakho-ke, ukunyakaza okuhlakaniphile kungaba uku ukunciphisa ukuchayeka ezibambiso ezinjalo lapho ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhuphuka.
Igolide nezinye izinsimbi eziyigugu ngokomlando bezibhekwa njengezindawo eziphephile ngesikhathi sokwehla kwamandla emali. Inani labo livame ukukhuphuka njengoba abatshalizimali befuna ukuvikela ingcebo yabo emiphumeleni ewohlokayo yokwehla kwamandla emali. Ngakho-ke, ukwandisa isabelo sakho ezinsimbi eziyigugu kungaba isinyathelo esihlakaniphile ngesikhathi sokwehla kwamandla emali.
Ukuthengisa izindlu ngomunye umkhakha ovame ukuhamba kahle ngesikhathi sokwehla kwamandla emali. Njengoba izindleko zezinto zokwakha kanye nezabasebenzi zikhuphuka, kanjalo nenani lezakhiwo ezikhona. Ngakho, ukutshalwa kwezimali ku-real estate inganikeza uthango ngokumelene nokwehla kwamandla emali.
Izimali zokuhweba kungaba futhi isu elisebenzayo ngesikhathi sokwehla kwamandla emali. Izinhlobo zemali zamazwe anamazinga aphansi e-inflation zivame ukuzuza uma kuqhathaniswa nalawo anamanani aphezulu. Ngakho, forex ukuhweba inganikeza amathuba okwenza inzuzo ngokukhuphuka kwamandla emali.
Okokugcina, Amasheya kungaba isikhwama esixubile ngesikhathi sokwehla kwamandla emali. Nakuba ezinye izinkampani zingase zibe nzima ngezindleko ezikhuphukayo, ezinye zingakwazi ukudlulisa lezi zindleko kumakhasimende azo. Ngakho-ke, ukukhetha amasheya afanele kubalulekile ngezikhathi zokwehla kwamandla emali.
Khumbula, lawa maqhinga awawona amaphutha futhi eza nezingozi zawo. Ngakho-ke, kubalulekile ukuthi uzenzele olwakho ucwaningo futhi mhlawumbe ufune izeluleko zochwepheshe ngaphambi kokwenza izinqumo zokutshala izimali.
4. Iqhaza lamabhange amakhulu ekulawuleni ukwehla kwamandla emali
Amabhange aphakathi yiziphathimandla zezimali eziphethe izintambo zempilo yezomnotho wezwe. Baqondisa umnotho emanzini aguquguqukayo e-inflation ngokusebenzisa amathuluzi ahlukahlukene abanawo. Enye yezindima eziyinhloko zamabhange amakhulu ukugcina ukuzinza kwentengo, okufana nokulawula ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Ukwehla kwamandla izinga izinga elijwayelekile lentengo yezimpahla namasevisi likhuphuka ngalo, futhi ngemva kwalokho, amandla okuthenga ehla. Uma kuyekwa kunganakwa, kungase kucekele phansi inani lemali, kuphazamise umnotho futhi kudale umonakalo omkhulu ngokwezimali. Yilapho amabhange Amaphakathi engena khona ukuze onge usuku.
Amanani enzalo zingenye yezikhali ezinamandla kakhulu kunqolobane yamabhange amakhulu. Ngokulungisa lezi zilinganiso, amabhange amakhulu angaba nomthelela ezindlekweni zokuboleka, ngaleyo ndlela alawule ukuhamba kwemali emnothweni. Uma ukwehla kwamandla emali kuphezulu, amabhange amakhulu anyusa inzalo, okwenza ukuboleka kubize kakhulu. Lokhu akukukhuthazi ukusebenzisa imali futhi kubambezela umnotho, obuye uhlole ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Elinye ithuluzi abanalo imisebenzi emakethe evulekile. Lokhu kubandakanya ukuthenga nokudayisa izibambiso zikahulumeni emakethe evulekile. Uma amabhange amakhulu efuna ukunciphisa ukwehla kwamandla emali, athengisa izibambiso. Lokhu kumosha imali emnothweni njengoba abathengi bekhokha ukuthenga lezi zibambiso, ngaleyo ndlela behlise ukunikezwa kwemali futhi kunqandwe ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Izimfuneko zokulondoloza kukhona enye i-lever central banks ingadonsa. Amabhange kudingeka ukuthi abambe iphesenti elithile lemali efakiwe njengemali ebekiwe. Ngokwandisa lesi silinganiso semali ebekiwe, amabhange amakhulu anganciphisa inani lemali amabhange analo ukuze abolekise, ngaleyo ndlela ehlise ukutholakala kwemali futhi alawule ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, amabhange amakhulu nawo ayasebenzisa ukuholwa phambili ukuba nomthelela ekulindelweni kokwehla kwamandla emali. Ngokukhulumisana nezinhlelo zabo zesikhathi esizayo namasu, bangakha okulindelwe yimakethe nokuziphatha, okungasiza ngokungaqondile ukulawula ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Khumbula, indima yamabhange amakhulu ekulawuleni ukwehla kwamandla emali iyisenzo esibucayi sokulinganisa. Kumelwe banyathele umugqa oqondile phakathi kokuvimbela umnotho ekushiseni ngokweqile nokugwema ukwehla. Kufana nokuhamba entanjeni eqinile, lapho ngisho nokuphambuka okuncane kungaba nemiphumela ebalulekile. Kodwa-ke, ngoxhaxha lwamathuluzi namasu awo, amabhange amakhulu akhombise ukuba ngabalindisango abaphumelelayo bokusimama komnotho.
4.1. Izinqubomgomo Zezezimali
Izinqubomgomo zezimali ukudlala indima ebalulekile ekuguquguqukeni kokwehla kwamandla emali. Lezi zinqubomgomo, ezisethwe yibhange elikhulu njenge I-Federal Reserve e-US, angamathuluzi abalulekile okulawula ukuhlinzekwa kwemali, okunomthelela emazingeni enzalo kanye nokukhula komnotho jikelele.
Ukuqonda izinhlobo ezimbili eziyinhloko zezinqubomgomo zezimali kubalulekile. Izinqubomgomo zezimali zokunwetshwa zisetshenziselwe ukufukula umnotho. Ibhange elikhulu lehlisa inzalo, okwenza ukuboleka kushibhe. Lokhu kukhuthaza ukusetshenziswa kwemali nokutshalwa kwezimali, okungaholela ekukhuleni komnotho. Kodwa-ke, uma umnotho ushisa ngokweqile, kungaholela ekwenyukeni kwamandla emali.
Ngokolunye uhlangothi, izinqubomgomo zemali ezifinyezwayo ihlose ukwehlisa izinga lomnotho uma ukhula ngokushesha. Ibhange elikhulu linyusa inzalo, okwenza ukuboleka kubize kakhulu. Lokhu akukukhuthazi ukusetshenziswa kwezimali kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali, kwehlisa umnotho kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali okungase kube nokwenzeka.
Kuyisenzo esibucayi sokulinganisa. Uma ibhange elikhulu libeka amanani enzalo aphansi kakhulu isikhathi eside, kungaholela esimweni esibizwa hyperinflation, lapho amanani enyuka ngokushesha njengoba ukutholakala kwemali kukhula ngaphandle kokuboshwa. Ngokuphambene, uma izinga lenzalo libekwe phezulu kakhulu, lingakhinyabeza ukukhula komnotho, okuholela ekuwohlokeni komnotho.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ibhange elikhulu liyaqasha imisebenzi emakethe evulekile - ukuthenga nokudayisa amabhondi kahulumeni - ukulawula ukutholakala kwemali. Lapho ibhange eliphakathi lithenga amabhondi, liyakwandisa ukutholakala kwemali, okungase kuholele ekwehleni kwamandla emali. Uma ithengisa amabhondi, inciphisa ukunikezwa kwemali, okungase kunqande ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Ukunciphisa okulinganiselwe ingelinye ithuluzi elisetshenziswa amabhange amakhulu, ikakhulukazi ngezikhathi zobunzima bomnotho. Lokhu kubandakanya ukuthi ibhange elikhulu lithenge inani elikhulu lezimpahla zezezimali, njengamabhondi kahulumeni, kumabhange okuhweba nezinye izikhungo zezezimali, ngaleyo ndlela andise ukuhlinzekwa kwemali futhi ehlise amanani enzalo ukuze kuthuthukiswe umnotho.
Emhlabeni wokuhweba, ukuqonda imithelela engaba khona yalezi zinqubomgomo zezimali ekukhuphukeni kwamandla emali kubalulekile. Zingathinta yonke into kusukela enanini lwemali yezwe kuya ekusebenzeni kwemakethe yamasheya. Ngakho-ke, ukuhlala unolwazi mayelana nezinqubomgomo zezimali zebhange elikhulu kunganikeza traders ngemininingwane ebalulekile, ebasiza ukuthi benze izinqumo ezinolwazi futhi basebenzise amathrendi emakethe.
4.2. I-Inflation Targeting
Ukuqondisa kokwehla kwamandla emali isu lenqubomgomo yezimali elisetshenziswa amabhange amakhulu ukuphatha nokulawula izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali emnothweni. Kufana nokaputeni womkhumbi obeka inkambo, lapho ibhange elikhulu liqondisa umnotho emazingeni athile okwehla kwamandla emali. Leli zinga livamise ukumiswa cishe ku-2%, izinga ngokuvamile elithathwa njengelizuzisa ukuzinza komnotho.
Ibhange elikhulu lisebenzisa amathuluzi ahlukahlukene ukufeza lokhu okuhlosiwe, okuhlanganisa ukulungisa amanani enzalo kanye nokulawula ukuphakelwa kwemali. Lapho ukwehla kwamandla emali kuphezulu kakhulu, ibhange lingase lenyuse izinga lenzalo ukuze linqande ukusetshenziswa kwemali futhi libambezele ukwehla kwamandla emali. Ngokuphambene, lapho ukwehla kwamandla emali kuphansi kakhulu, ingase yehlise izilinganiso zenzalo ukuze ivuse ukusetshenziswa kwemali futhi inyuse ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Ake singene sijule ekutheni lokhu kusebenza kanjani. Zicabange uyibhange elikhulu. Uma ubona ukwehla kwamandla emali kukhasa ngaphezu komgomo wakho, ungase ucabange, "Isikhathi sokuthinta amabhuleki." Ungakhuphula izilinganiso zenzalo, okwenza ukuboleka kubize kakhulu. Lokhu kudikibalisa amabhizinisi kanye nabantu ngabanye ekuthatheni imali ebolekiwe, kunciphisa inani lemali egeleza emnothweni futhi, bese kwehlisa ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uma ukwehla kwamandla emali kuncipha ngaphansi kwethagethi yakho, ungafuna ukushaya igesi. Uzokwehlisa izilinganiso zenzalo, okwenza ukuboleka kushibhe. Lokhu kukhuthaza amabhizinisi kanye nabantu ngabanye ukuthi bathathe imali ebolekiwe, bakhulise inani lemali egeleza emnothweni futhi, ngokulandelayo, kukhuphule ukwehla kwamandla emali.
Nokho, ukuqondisa ekwenyukeni kwamandla emali kunezinselelo zakho. Kudinga ukubikezela okunembile futhi ukungenelela okufika ngesikhathi yibhange elikhulu. Uma ibhange lingahluleli ngendlela yokuqondisa umnotho noma liphuza ukwenza okuthile, lingase liphuthelwe umgomo walo, okuholela ekwehleni okukhulu kwamandla emali noma okuncane kakhulu. Zombili lezi zimo zingaba nemiphumela elimazayo emnothweni.
Naphezu kwalezi zinselele, amazwe amaningi, okuhlanganisa i-UK, i-Canada, ne-Australia, asebenzisa ukuqondisa kwamandla emali njengesu lawo eliyinhloko lenqubomgomo yezimali. Bakholelwa ukuthi ngokugcina izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali ezinzile futhi elibikezelwayo, bangakhuthaza ukukhula komnotho nokuzinza. Ngale ndlela, ukuqondisa ukwehla kwamandla emali kusebenza njengethuluzi elibalulekile lokuzulazula olwandle olukhulu noluvame ukuba nezinxushunxushu emnothweni womhlaba.
4.3. Iqhaza Lezokuxhumana LeBhange Elikhulu
Uma kukhulunywa nge-inflation, indima yeBhange Elikhulu ayikwazi ukugcizelelwa. I-Central Bank, empeleni, i-puppet master, edonsa izintambo zomnotho ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukulingana phakathi kokukhula nokuzinza. Elinye lamathuluzi alo abaluleke kakhulu kulesi senzo sokulinganisa ukuxhumana.
Ukuxhumana okuvela eBhange Elikhulu iyisici esibalulekile ekulawuleni okulindelwe ezimakethe kanye nokuqondisa indlela yezomnotho. Kungalesi siteshi lapho ibhange lidlulisela khona izinqumo zenqubomgomo yezimali, imibono yenqubomgomo yesikhathi esizayo, kanye nokuhlola kwalo isimo somnotho. Lolu lwazi lubalulekile ku traders, njengoba inikeza imininingwane mayelana nokunyakaza kwemakethe okungaba khona futhi ibasize benze izinqumo ezinolwazi.
Isu lokuxhumana leBhange Elikhulu liye lavela eminyakeni edlule. Ngokwesiko, babaziwa ngolimi lwabo olufihlekile kanye nezitatimende ezingacacile. Nokho, eminyakeni yamuva nje, kuye kwaba khona ukuguquguquka ukucaca okukhulu nokucaca. Lolu shintsho lubangelwa kakhulu ukuqashelwa ukuthi ukuxhumana okucacile nokubikezelwayo kungasiza ukusimamisa izimakethe futhi kuthuthukise ukusebenza kahle kwenqubomgomo yezimali.
Isibonelo, uma iBhange Elikhulu libonisa ukwenyuka kwamazinga enzalo esikhathini esizayo, traders bangasilindela lesi sinyathelo futhi balungise amasu abo ngokufanele. Bangase bathengise amabhondi, belindele ukuthi amanani abo ehle lapho amanani enzalo enyuka, noma bangase bathenge amasheya, babikezele ukuthi izinkampani zizozuza ekukhuleni komnotho okuvame ukuhambisana nenzalo ephakeme.
Nokho, ukuxhumana kweBhange Elikhulu akulula ngaso sonke isikhathi. Ngokuvamile kuhilela isenzo sokulinganisa esibucayi. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ibhange lidinga ukunikeza ulwazi olwanele ukuze liqondise okulindelwe yimakethe. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kufanele igweme ukudala ukwethuka noma ukweqisa kwesasasa okungase kuthuntubeze izimakethe.
Ngakho-ke, kubalulekile ukuze traders ukunganaki kuphela ukuxhumana kweBhange Elikhulu kodwa futhi nokuqonda ama-nuances nemithelela yale miyalezo. Lokhu kuqonda kungabanikeza umkhawulo wokuncintisana futhi kubasize bazulazule emhlabeni oyinkimbinkimbi wokuhweba endaweni yokwehla kwamandla emali.
Khumbula, emhlabeni wezohwebo, ulwazi lungamandla. Futhi uma kuziwa ekukhuphukeni kwamandla emali, ukuxhumana kweBhange Elikhulu kungenye yemithombo enamandla kakhulu yolwazi ongaba nayo.
