1. Ukuqonda Okuyisisekelo kwe-MACD
Lapho ungena emhlabeni wokuhweba, ukuqonda izinkomba zobuchwepheshe ezifana ne MACD (Ukuhambisa esijwayelekile Convergence Divergence) ibalulekile. Leli thuluzi, elasungulwa nguGerald Appel ngasekupheleni kwawo-1970, liwumkhuba olandelayo inkomba yomfutho okubonisa ubudlelwano phakathi kwezilinganiso ezimbili ezihambayo zenani lesibambiso.
I-MACD iqukethe izingxenye ezintathu: umugqa we-MACD, umugqa wesiginali, kanye ne-histogram ye-MACD. I Umzila we-MACD umehluko phakathi kwe-EMA yezinsuku eziyi-12 (Isilinganiso sokuhamba esiphezulu se-Exponential) kanye ne-EMA yezinsuku ezingama-26. I umugqa wesignali, ngokuvamile i-EMA yezinsuku ezingu-9 yomugqa we-MACD, isebenza njengesiqalo sokuthenga nokuthengisa amasignali. Okokugcina, i I-histogram ye-MACD imelela umehluko phakathi komugqa we-MACD kanye nomugqa wesignali, enikeza ukumelwa okubonakalayo kwejubane lokushintsha kwentengo.
Ukuqonda ukuthi lezi zakhi zisebenzisana kanjani kubalulekile ekuhumusheni i-MACD. Uma ulayini we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komugqa wesiginali, ngokuvamile ubonisa ukuthambekela kwe-bullish, okuphakamisa ukuthi kungase kube isikhathi esihle sokuthenga. Ngokuphambene, uma umugqa we-MACD weqa ngaphansi komugqa wesignali, uphakamisa umkhuba we-bearish, okungenzeka ubonise isikhathi esihle sokuthengisa.
I-MACD nayo iyasiza traders ukukhomba amaphuzu angahle ahlehliswe. A umehluko we-bullish kwenzeka lapho i-MACD yenza amanani aphansi amabili akhuphukayo ahambisana nokwehla okubili kwentengo. Lokhu kungase kubonise ukuguqulwa kwentengo okungaba khona. A divergence ye-bearish kwenzeka lapho i-MACD yenza ukuphakama okubili okuwayo okuhambisana nokukhuphuka okuphezulu okubili kwenani, okungase kubonise ukuhlehla kwentengo.
Ngenkathi i-MACD iyithuluzi elinamandla, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi akukho nkomba engenangqondo. Ngaso sonke isikhathi sebenzisa ngokuhlanganyela namanye amathuluzi futhi uhlaziye ukuze wenze izinqumo zokuhweba ezinolwazi. Ukuze uthole ulwazi oluthe xaxa nge-MACD, cabangela izinsiza ezifana 'nokuhlaziywa Kobuchwepheshe Kwezimakethe Zezezimali' ka-John J. Murphy.
1.1. Iyini i-Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)?
The Ukuhambisa Isilinganiso se-Convergence Divergence (i-MACD) iyinkomba yesivinini esilandela ithrendi eveza ubudlelwano phakathi kwezilinganiso ezimbili ezihambayo zenani lezokuphepha. I-MACD ibalwa ngokukhipha i-26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) kusukela ku-EMA yenkathi engu-12. Umphumela waleso sibalo ulayini we-MACD. I-EMA yezinsuku eziyisishiyagalolunye ye-MACD, ebizwa ngokuthi “umugqa wesiginali,” ibe isihlelwa phezulu komugqa we-MACD, ongasebenza njengesicuphi sokuthenga nokudayisa amasignali.
Traders ingase ithenge ukuphepha lapho i-MACD iwela ngaphezu komugqa wayo wesiginali futhi ithengise ukuphepha lapho i-MACD iwela ngaphansi komugqa wesiginali. Izinkomba ze-Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) zingahunyushwa ngezindlela eziningana, kodwa izindlela ezivame kakhulu ama-crossovers, ukwehlukana, nokukhuphuka/ukuwa ngokushesha.
Isibonelo, lapho i-MACD iwela ngaphansi komugqa wesignali, iyisiginali ye-bearish, ebonisa ukuthi kungase kube yisikhathi sokuthengisa. Ngokuphambene, lapho i-MACD iphakama ngaphezu komugqa wesignali, inkomba inikeza isignali ye-bullish, ephakamisa ukuthi intengo yempahla ingase ithole umfutho okhuphukayo. Abanye traders ulinda isiphambano esiqinisekisiwe ngaphezu komugqa wesignali ngaphambi kokungena endaweni ukuze ugweme "ukuxoshwa" noma ukungena endaweni ngaphambi kwesikhathi kakhulu.
I-Divergence phakathi kwe-MACD kanye nesenzo samanani kuyisignali enamandla uma iqinisekisa izimpawu ze-crossover. Isibonelo, uma inani le-MACD likhuphuka kancane, kodwa intengo yehla kancane kancane, lokhu kungase kubonise ukuthambekela okuzayo kwe-bullish.
Okokugcina, ukukhuphuka okusheshayo (noma ukuwa) ku-MACD kungase kubonise ukuthengwa ngokweqile (noma ukuthengisa ngokweqile), kunikeze isignali engase ibe khona ukuze ubuke ukulungiswa kwentengo noma ukudonsa emuva. Kodwa-ke, njengazo zonke izinkomba zemakethe, i-MACD ayinabo ubuwula futhi kufanele isetshenziswe ngokuhambisana nezinye izinkomba ukwenza izinqumo eziphusile zokuhweba.
I-MACD isetshenziswe kabanzi ngabakwa traders kusukela ekuthuthukisweni kwayo nguGerald Appel ngasekupheleni kwawo-1970, futhi ngesizathu esihle. Ikhono layo lokubona amathrendi ashintsha ngokushesha, kanye nohlu olubanzi lwezinhlobo zamasignali ayenza ibe ithuluzi eliguquguqukayo kunoma iyiphi trader's arsenal.1
1 Appel, Gerald. "I-Moving Average Convergence Divergence Trading Method." Traders.com. 1979.
1.2. Izingxenye ze-MACD
I-MACD, noma i-Moving Average Convergence Divergence, iyinkomba yohlobo lwe-oscillator esetshenziswa kabanzi analysis technical. I-MACD yakhiwe izingxenye ezintathu ezinkulu: umugqa we-MACD, umugqa Wesiginali, kanye ne-Histogram.
The Umzila we-MACD ibalwa ngokukhipha Isilinganiso Sokuhambisa Esibonakalayo (i-EMA) sezinsuku ezingama-26 ku-EMA yezinsuku eziyi-12. Lo mugqa usetshenziselwa ukukhomba amasiginali wokuthenga nokuthengisa okungenzeka. Isibonelo, lapho umugqa we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komugqa wesiginali, iyisiginali ye-bullish. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, lapho umugqa we-MACD weqa ngaphansi komugqa wesiginali, uyisiginali ye-bearish.
The Umugqa wesiginali i-EMA yezinsuku ezingu-9 yomugqa we-MACD ngokwawo. Isebenza njengesiqalo sokuthenga nokuthengisa amasignali. Traders kanye nabatshalizimali banake kakhulu lapho ulayini we-MACD kanye nomugqa wesiginali weqa, njengoba la maphuzu evame ukukhombisa ukuguqulwa kwemakethe okungaba khona.
The histogram imele umehluko phakathi komugqa we-MACD nomugqa Wesiginali. Lapho umugqa we-MACD ungaphezu komugqa wesignali, i-histogram ilungile. Lapho umugqa we-MACD ungaphansi komugqa wesignali, i-histogram inegethivu. I-histogram ilusizo ekuboneni ngeso lengqondo usayizi nesiqondiso segebe phakathi kwemigqa ye-MACD neSiginali.
Empeleni, lezi zingxenye ezintathu ze-MACD zinikeza traders nabatshalizimali abanesethi ecebile yedatha yokusekela izinqumo zabo zemakethe. Ngokuqonda nokuhumusha lezi zingxenye ngendlela efanele, bangathola ukuqonda okujulile kwamathrendi emakethe kanye nokuhlehla okungaba khona.
2. Ukuhumusha Izimpawu ze-MACD
I-MACD, noma i-Moving Average Convergence Divergence, iyithuluzi elinamandla ku-arsenal yanoma yikuphi ukwaziswa. trader noma umtshali-zimali. Inhloso yawo eyinhloko uku thola izimpawu zokuthenga nokudayisa okungenzeka, enikeza imininingwane ebalulekile kumathrendi emakethe. Lapho ulayini we-MACD weqa ngaphezu komugqa wesiginali, ngokuvamile uhunyushwa njengesignali ye-bullish - isikhathi esifanele sokuthenga. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, lapho ulayini we-MACD weqa ngezansi komugqa wesiginali, ngokuvamile ubonakala njengesignali ye-bearish, okubonisa indawo yokuthengisa engaba namandla.
Isici esibalulekile se-MACD yi- umugqa onguziro, esebenza njengesisekelo samanani avumayo noma amabi. Uma umugqa we-MACD ungaphezu komugqa we-zero, lokhu kuphakamisa ukuthi isilinganiso sesikhathi esifushane sidlula isilinganiso sesikhathi eside - isignali ye-bullish. Uma ingaphansi komugqa onguziro, isilinganiso sesikhathi esifushane siyasilela - isignali ye-bearish. Abatshalizimali nabo kufanele banake ukuhlukana, okwenzeka lapho intengo yempahla kanye ne-MACD ihamba ngendlela ehlukile. Lokhu kungase kubonise ukuguqulwa kwemakethe okungase kube khona, futhi kuwuphawu olubalulekile oluyisixwayiso traders.
I-MACD Histogram ingenye ingxenye ebalulekile okufanele icatshangelwe. Ihlela ibanga phakathi komugqa we-MACD nomugqa wesiginali, inikeze ukumelwa okubonakalayo kokuthi lezi zimbili zisebenzisana kanjani. Amanani amahle phakamisa umfutho we-bullish, ngenkathi amanani angalungile khombisa umfutho we-bearish. Ngokuphawulekayo, i-histogram ingasiza traders ukuhlonza lapho umfutho wemakethe wehla noma ukhuphuka ngesivinini, okuhlinzeka ngokuqonda okuguquguqukayo okwengeziwe kokuguquguquka kwemakethe.
Ngale mibono, tradeI-rs ingasebenzisa i-MACD ukuze ilinganise ngempumelelo isiqondiso namandla ezitayela zemakethe, ibone kusengaphambili ukuhlehla okungaba khona, futhi yenze izinqumo ezinolwazi mayelana nokuthi uzothenga futhi uthengise nini. Kodwa-ke, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi nakuba i-MACD iyithuluzi elinamandla, ayilona iqiniso, futhi kufanele ihlale isetshenziswa ngokuhambisana nezinye izinkomba nezindlela zokuhlaziya. Ngokuvumelana ne Investopedia, i-MACD "kufanele isetshenziswe nezinye izinkomba zobuchwepheshe noma amaphethini eshadi ukuze kukhuliswe ukusebenza kahle."
2.1. I-Signal Line Crossovers
I-MACD, noma i-Moving Average Convergence Divergence, iyithuluzi elinamandla le traders, enikeza imininingwane mayelana nezitayela zemakethe kanye nezimpawu zokuthenga noma ukuthengisa okungenzeka. Isici esiyinhloko saleli thuluzi yi- I-Signal Line Crossover, indlela engasiza traders gauge umfutho wemakethe futhi ubikezele izenzo zamanani zesikhathi esizayo.
I-Signal Line Crossover yenzeka lapho umugqa we-MACD, ubalwa ngokukhipha i-26-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) kusukela ku-EMA yezinsuku ezingu-12, uwela ngenhla noma ngaphansi komugqa wesignali, i-EMA yezinsuku ezingu-9 yomugqa we-MACD. Lapho ulayini we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komugqa wesiginali, ngokuvamile uyisignali ye-bullish, ephakamisa ukuthi kungase kube isikhathi esihle sokuthenga. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, lapho ulayini we-MACD weqa ngaphansi komugqa wesiginali, ngokuvamile ubhekwa njengesignali ye-bearish, okusikisela ukuthi kungase kube yisikhathi sokuthengisa.
Kodwa kubalulekile ukukhumbula lokho I-Signal Line Crossovers akufanele isetshenziswe yodwa. NgokukaGerald Appel, umdali we-MACD, lezi ziphambano kwesinye isikhathi zingakhiqiza amasiginali angamanga noma 'ama-whipsaw', ikakhulukazi ezimakethe ezishintshashintshayo. Ngakho-ke, kubalulekile ukuze traders ukuzisebenzisa ngokuhambisana nezinye izinkomba zobuchwepheshe noma amaphethini eshadi ukuze kuqinisekiswe amasiginali nokugwema ama-alamu angamanga.
Isibonelo, a trader angase asebenzise i Isihlobo Amandla Inkomba (RSI) noma I-Bollinger Amabhendi ane-MACD ukwandisa ukuthembeka kwezimpawu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuyanconywa ukuthi kubhekwe inkambiso iyonke kanye nezinye izici zomnotho omkhulu ngaphambi kokwenza isinqumo sokuhweba esisekelwe I-Signal Line Crossovers. Njengenhlalayenza, uhlakaniphile ingozi amasu okuphatha kanye nendlela eqondile yokuhweba kubaluleke kakhulu empumelelweni ezimakethe zezimali.
2.2. Zero Line Crossovers
Lapho ufunda i- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), umqondo we Zero Line Crossovers ibalulekile. Lezi ziphambano zenzeka lapho umugqa we-MACD, umehluko phakathi kwezinsuku eziyi-12 kanye nezinsuku ezingama-26 ezinyakazayo ezinyakazayo, weqa umugqa onguziro. I-crossover enhle isho ukuthambekela kwe-bullish, okubonisa isikhathi esikahle traders ukuthenga. Ngokuphambene, i-crossover engalungile isho ukuthambekela kwe-bearish, okuphakamisa ukuthi kungase kube isikhathi esifanele sokuthengisa.
Ukusebenza kwama-crossover kalayini aziro, njenganoma yiliphi isu lokuhweba, akuphelele futhi kufanele kusetshenziswe ngokuhambisana nezinye izinkomba. Ngokwesibonelo, the I-Signal Line Crossovers, umugqa wesibili ohlelwe eshadini le-MACD, ungasiza ekuqinisekiseni ukuwela komugqa onguziro. Ukuhlangana kwalezi zimpawu ezimbili kunganikeza ubufakazi obunamandla boshintsho olungase lube khona endleleni yemakethe.
Kodwa-ke, ama-crossover kalayini aziro asengozini yokuhlinzeka ngezimpawu ezingamanga ngesikhathi semakethe eguquguqukayo. Traders kufanele iqaphele iziswebhu, okuwukuguquguquka okubukhali kwentengo okungaholela kumasignali adukisayo. Ngakho-ke, kuyatuseka ukuthi ubheke imakethe ukuze uqinisekiswe ngaphambi kokuthatha isinyathelo esiphambanweni somugqa onguziro.
Ngokusho umbiko we-the Market Technicians Association, i-zero line crossovers itholakale iphumelela kakhulu ekuboneni amathuba okuhweba esikhathi eside kunezimo zesikhashana. Ucwaningo lubeka ukuthi ama-crossover kalayini aziro anganikeza imininingwane ebalulekile kumathrendi emakethe, kodwa isikhathi sokubulawa kwawo sidinga ikhono nokunemba.
Khumbula, i-MACD iyithuluzi elisebenza ngezindlela eziningi elinikeza okungaphezu nje kokuphambana komugqa onguziro. Ezinye izingxenye ezifana ne- I-Histogram ye-MACD futhi Ukuphazamiseka zibalulekile ngokufanayo ekufakeni isandla ekuhlaziyweni okuphelele kwemakethe. Ngakho, ngempumelelo trader ungomunye okwazi ukuvumelanisa izakhi ezahlukahlukene ze-MACD ukuze athuthukise isu labo lokuhweba.
2.3. Ukwehlukana
Umqondo ukuhlukana kuyisici esibalulekile lapho kuhlaziywa i-Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). I-Divergence, kumongo we-MACD, ibhekisela esimweni lapho intengo yesibambiso kanye nenkomba ye-MACD ihamba ngendlela ehlukile. Lesi isignali yemakethe ebalulekile ukuthi traders nabatshalizimali akufanele banganaki.
A umehluko we-bullish kwenzeka lapho intengo yesibambiso yenza ukwehla okusha, kodwa i-MACD ihambela phezulu. Lokhu kwehluka kungase kube inkomba yokuhlehliswa kwentengo okungaba khona, okuphakamisa ukuthi kungase kube isikhathi esikahle sokuthenga. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, a divergence ye-bearish ibonakala lapho intengo yenza ukuphakama okusha, kodwa i-MACD ihambela phansi. Lolu hlobo lokwehlukana lungase lubonise ukuhlehla kwentengo okungaba khona, okubonisa ukuthi kungase kube isikhathi esihle sokuthengisa.
Kodwa-ke, kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi nakuba ukuhlukana kunganikeza imininingwane ebalulekile, akufanele kusetshenziswe ngokuhlukaniswa. Njengoba kuboniswe ngu-Murphy encwadini yakhe ethi "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets," izimpawu zokuhlukana zivame ukwethenjwa uma zisetshenziswa ngokuhambisana nezinye izinkomba zobuchwepheshe. Lokhu kungasiza traders kanye nabatshalizimali bandisa amathuba okwenza izinqumo zokuhweba eziyimpumelelo.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuhlukana ngezinye izikhathi kungase kudukise. Akuvamile ukuthi kube nokwehlukana, kuphela ukuthi intengo iqhubeke nethrendi yayo yasekuqaleni. Lokhu kwaziwa ngokuthi a ukwehlukana okungamanga. Ngakho-ke, nakuba ukwehlukana kunganikeza imininingwane ebalulekile mayelana nokuhlehla kwemakethe okungase kube khona, kubalulekile ukuthi traders nabatshalizimali ukuze bayisebenzise eceleni kwamanye amathuluzi obuchwepheshe futhi bacabangele njalo umongo wemakethe obanzi.
Ngokuphawulekayo, ukwehlukana kuyingxenye eyodwa ye-MACD, kodwa ukuqonda lesi simiso kungathuthukisa kakhulu amakhono akho okuhlaziya lobuchwepheshe. Ngokubhekisisa ngokucophelela nangokusebenzisa okuhlakaniphile, ukwehlukana kwe-MACD kungaba yithuluzi elinamandla kunqolobane yakho yokuhweba, okukusiza ukuthi ubone amaphuzu angase ashintshe emakethe ngaphambi kokuba kwenzeke.
3. I-Mastering MACD Trading Strategy
The I-MACD (Ukuhambisa Isilinganiso Se-Convergence Divergence) ukuhweba isu kuyindlela ethandwayo phakathi traders kanye nabatshalizimali, abadume ngokusebenza ngempumelelo ekuvezeni amathuba okuthenga nokudayisa okungaba khona. Ngokuqhathanisa ukusebenzisana kwezilinganiso ezimbili ezihambayo, isu le-MACD lingasiza traders ukukhomba izikhathi ezibalulekile emakethe.
Ukwandisa ukusetshenziswa kwesu le-MACD, kubalulekile ukuqonda izingxenye zayo ezintathu ezibalulekile: umugqa we-MACD, umugqa wesiginali, kanye ne-histogram ye-MACD. I Umzila we-MACD umehluko phakathi kwezinsuku eziyi-12 kanye nezinsuku ezingama-26 zokunyakazisa okuchayekayo (amas), kuyilapho umugqa wesignali i-EMA yezinsuku ezingu-9 yomugqa we-MACD.
Lapho umugqa we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komugqa wesignali, ukhiqiza isignali ye-bullish, ebonisa ukuthi kungase kube isikhathi esifanele sokuthenga. Ngokuphambene, lapho umugqa we-MACD uwela ngaphansi komugqa wesignali, udala isignali ye-bearish, ephakamisa ukuthi kungase kube isikhathi esifanele sokuthengisa.
I-histogram ye-MACD, emele umehluko phakathi komugqa we-MACD kanye nomugqa wesiginali, idlala indima ebalulekile ekubikezeleni izitayela zemakethe. Uma i-histogram ilungile (umugqa we-MACD ungaphezu komugqa wesignali), ingase ibonise ukuphakama. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-histogram engalungile (umugqa we-MACD ngaphansi komugqa wesignali) ingase iphakamise ukwehla.
Into ebalulekile okufanele uyikhumbule mayelana nesu lokuhweba le-MACD ukuthembela kwayo ezimeni zemakethe. Phakathi nezimo zemakethe eziguquguqukayo, i-MACD ingase ikhiqize izimpawu ezingamanga. Ngakho-ke, kuyatuseka ukuthi uyisebenzise ngokuhambisana nezinye izinkomba zobuchwepheshe ukuze uthole ukuhlaziya okubanzi nokunembe kwemakethe.
Ngokocwaningo olushicilelwe ku-International Journal of Trade, Ezomnotho, Nezezimali, isu le-MACD lingasebenza ngokukhethekile uma lihlanganiswa ne-Relative Strength Index (RSI).1 Nakuba i-MACD isiza ukukhomba izinguquko zethrendi ezingase zibe khona kanye namathuba okuthenga noma okuthengisa, i-RSI ingaqinisekisa lezi zimpawu ngokulinganisa isivinini noshintsho lokunyakaza kwentengo.
Ukuphathwa kweengozi esinye isici esibalulekile sokuphatha isu lokuhweba le-MACD. Ngaso sonke isikhathi qiniseka ukuthi ubeka ama-stop-loss orders ukuze uvikele ukutshalwa kwezimali kwakho ekulahlekelweni okukhulu uma kwenzeka imakethe iphikisana nokuqagela kwakho.
1 "Ucwaningo Olunamandla Lokuhlaziywa Kwezobuchwepheshe Lokubikezela Amathrendi e-Stock Market", Ijenali Yamazwe Ngamazwe ka Trade, Ezomnotho, Nezezimali, 2012.
3.1. I-MACD Njengesu Elilandela Isitayela
The I-MACD (Ukuhambisa Isilinganiso Se-Convergence Divergence) iyithuluzi elinamandla ezandleni zengcweti trader, ikakhulukazi njengesu elilandela izitayela. Kuyinkomba yobuchwepheshe engasiza traders ihlonze amathuba okuthenga noma okuthengisa angenzeka ngokusekelwe ezimakethe. Lokhu kufinyelelwa ngokulandelela ukusebenzisana phakathi kwezilinganiso ezimbili ezihambayo: umugqa we-MACD nomugqa wesiginali.
Umugqa we-MACD umehluko phakathi kwezinsuku ezingama-26 kanye ne-12-day exponential move average (EMA), kanti umugqa wesiginali uyi-EMA yezinsuku eziyi-9 yomugqa we-MACD. Ukusebenzisana kwale migqa kwenza isisekelo sesu le-MACD lokulandela izitayela.
Lapho Umugqa we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komugqa wesiginali, ngokuvamile ibonakala njengesignali ye-bullish, ekhombisa amandla ethrendi ekhulayo. Ngokuphambene, lapho i- Umugqa we-MACD uwela ngaphansi komugqa wesiginali, ikhomba ukuthambekela okungenzeka kube yi-bearish.
Nokho, njengabo bonke amasu ukuhweba, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi amasiginali we-MACD awawona amaphutha. Kufanele zisetshenziswe ngokuhambisana namanye amathuluzi okuhlaziya ezobuchwepheshe kanye nedatha yemakethe ukwenza izinqumo zokuhweba ezinolwazi. Ukuhlanganisa isu lokulandela ithrendi le-MACD nokulawulwa kwengozi okuzwakalayo kungasiza traders ukuzulazula emanzini aguquguqukayo ezimakethe zezimali.
Ocwaningweni olwenziwe ngabakwa Ijenali Yokuhlaziywa Kwezobuchwepheshe, i-MACD itholakale iyithuluzi elithembekile lokubikezela ukunyakaza kwamanani esikhathi esifushane, iqinisa inani layo kuhlelo oluphelele lokuhweba. Naphezu kokulula kwayo, inikeza imininingwane ebalulekile kumathrendi emakethe, iyasiza traders ukuhlala isinyathelo esisodwa phambili.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, amandla e-MACD awagcini nje ekuhlonzeni isiqalo nesiphetho samathrendi. Iphinde isebenzise ukukhomba ukwehluka kwentengo. Isibonelo, lapho intengo ifinyelela phezulu okusha kodwa i-MACD ingafiki, ingabonisa ukuwohloka kwe-uptrend kanye nokuhlehla kwemakethe okungaba khona.
Ngakho-ke, ukuqonda nokusebenzisa ngempumelelo i-MACD njengesu lokulandela izitayela kungaphakamisa kakhulu a tradeikhono lika-r lokucacisa ukunyakaza kwemakethe, futhi ngokulandelayo, impumelelo yabo yokuhweba.
3.2. I-MACD njengesu le-Momentum
Emhlabeni wokuhweba nokutshala imali, i MACD (I-Moving Average Convergence Divergence) iyinkomba eyaziwayo, ikakhulukazi uma kukhulunywa ngesu lomfutho. Le nkomba yasungulwa nguGerald Appel ngasekupheleni kwawo-1970 ukuze abone izinguquko emandleni, indlela, umfutho, kanye nobude besikhathi sentengo yentengo.
The MACD iyinkomba yesivinini esilandela ithrendi ebonisa ubudlelwano phakathi kwezilinganiso ezimbili ezihambayo zenani lezokuphepha. I-MACD ibalwa ngokudonsa i-26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) kusukela ku-EMA yenkathi engu-12. Umphumela walokhu kususa ulayini we-MACD. I-EMA yezinsuku eziyisishiyagalolunye ye-MACD, ebizwa ngokuthi “umugqa wesiginali,” bese ibekwa phezulu kulayini we-MACD, ongasebenza njengezingqalasizinda zokuthenga nokudayisa amasignali.
Traders angase athenge isibambiso lapho MACD iwela ngaphezu komugqa wayo wesignali futhi uthengise - noma ufushane - ukuphepha lapho i-MACD iwela ngaphansi komugqa wesiginali. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-histogram ye-MACD, ehlelwe ngemigoqo eqondile, ikhombisa ibanga phakathi komugqa we-MACD nomugqa wesiginali ye-MACD. Uma umugqa we-MACD ungaphezu komugqa wesignali, i-histogram izoba ngaphezu kwesisekelo se-MACD. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uma umugqa we-MACD ungaphansi komugqa wesiginali, i-histogram izoba ngaphansi kwesisekelo se-MACD. Traders sebenzisa i-histogram ukukhomba lapho umfutho we-bullish noma we-bearish uphezulu.
Ngekhono layo lokusebenzisa idatha yentengo futhi iyiguqule ibe inkomba esebenzisekayo elandela izitayela, i MACD iyithuluzi elibalulekile traders abafuna ukusebenzisa isu lomfutho. Kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi nakuba i-MACD iyithuluzi elinamandla, isetshenziswa kangcono ngokuhambisana nezinye izinkomba kanye namasu okuhlaziya ukuze kuqinisekiswe amasignali nokuvimbela amanga angamanga.
3.3. Ukuhlanganisa i-MACD Nezinye Izinkomba Zobuchwepheshe
Nakuba i-Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) iyithuluzi elinamandla ngokwayo, ukusebenza kwayo kungakhuliswa kakhulu uma isetshenziswa ngokuhambisana nezinye izinkomba zobuchwepheshe. Ukuhlanganisa i-MACD ne- I-Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Amabhodi we-Bollinger, ngokwesibonelo, inganikeza umbono obanzi wezimo zemakethe.
RSI, ekala isivinini nokushintsha kokunyakaza kwentengo, ingahambisana ne-MACD ngokusiza ukuqinisekisa ukuthi imakethe ithengwe ngokweqile noma ithengiswa kakhulu. Uma izinkomba ze-RSI ne-MACD ziqondana, zinganikeza isignali eqinile traders. Isibonelo, uma i-MACD ibonisa i-bullish crossover (umugqa we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komugqa wesiginali) futhi i-RSI ingaphansi kuka-30 (ebonisa izimo ezidayiswa kakhulu), ingabonisa ithuba eliqinile lokuthenga.
Ngokolunye uhlangothi, Amabhodi we-Bollinger ingasetshenziswa eceleni kwe-MACD ukukhomba ukungazami kanye namazinga entengo asezimweni ezithengiwe ngokweqile noma ezidayiswe ngokweqile. Lapho intengo ithinta i-Bollinger Band ephezulu futhi umugqa we-MACD uwela ngaphansi komugqa wesignali, ungabonisa ithuba lokuthengisa. Ngokuphambene, uma intengo ithinta i-Bollinger Band ephansi futhi umugqa we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komugqa wesignali, kungase kubonise ithuba lokuthenga.
Khumbula, nakuba lawa masu angathuthukisa ukusebenza kwe-MACD, awawona amaphutha futhi kufanele asetshenziswe ngokuhambisana nesu eliphelele lokuhweba kanye nezinqubo zokulawula ubungozi. Njengocwaningo luka-Huang, Yu, and Wang (2009), ukuhlanganisa izinkomba zobuchwepheshe eziningi kungakhuphula inzuzo yamasu okuhweba, kodwa kubalulekile ukuqonda ukuthi inkomba ngayinye isebenza kanjani futhi uzisebenzise ngendlela efanele ezimeni zemakethe ezahlukene.
Kubalulekile futhi i-backtest noma yiliphi isu ngaphambi kokuqaliswa. Ukubuyisela emuva kuhilela ukusebenzisa isu lakho kudatha yomlando ukuze ubone ukuthi ngabe isebenze kanjani. Lokhu kungakunikeza imininingwane ebalulekile futhi kukusize ulungise indlela yakho. Njengoba isisho sakudala sihamba, “Hlela okwakho trade futhi trade icebo lakho.”
4. Amathiphu Awusizo Okuhweba Nge-MACD
Enye yezindlela eziphumelela kakhulu zokusebenzisa i-Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) usebenzisa ama-crossovers. I-crossover ye-bullish yenzeka lapho ulayini we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komugqa wesiginali, okubonisa ukuthi kungaba yisikhathi esihle sokuthenga. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-bearish crossover, lapho umugqa we-MACD weqa ngaphansi komugqa wesiginali, iphakamisa ukuthi kungaba yisikhathi esihle sokuthengisa. Hlala ucabangela inkambiso yemakethe lapho uhumusha ama-crossovers e-MACD; ngokwe-Dow Theory, "izitayela zikhona kuze kube yilapho izimpawu eziqondile zifakazela ukuthi seziphelile."[1]
Elinye isu elinamandla uku bona ukwehlukana phakathi kwe-MACD nenani lempahla. Uma intengo yempahla yenza ukuphakama okusha, kodwa i-MACD ingenzi kanjalo, lokhu kwehluka kwe-bearish kungase kubonise ukuguqulwa kwentengo okungaba khona kuya phansi. Ukwehlukana kwe-bullish, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kwenzeka lapho intengo yenza phansi okusha, kodwa i-MACD ayikwenzi, ikhomba ukuguqulwa kwentengo okungenzeka kube phezulu.
Qaphela izimpawu zamanga. I-MACD, njengazo zonke izinkomba, ayinangqondo futhi ingase ikhiqize amasignali angamanga. Ukuze unciphise le ngozi, cabanga ukusebenzisa i-MACD ngokuhambisana nezinye izinkomba noma amathuluzi okuhlaziya ezobuchwepheshe ukuze uqinisekise amasignali futhi ugweme izinto ezingase zibe khona ezingamanga.
Yenza ngokwezifiso izilungiselelo ze-MACD ukulingana isu lakho lokuhweba. Izilungiselelo ezijwayelekile ze-MACD (12, 26, 9) azimisiwe etsheni. Dlala ngezilungiselelo ezahlukahlukene ukuze uthole ukuthi yini esebenza kangcono ngesitayela sakho sokuhweba kanye nempahla ethile oyithengisayo. Qaphela ukuthi izilungiselelo ezimfishane zizokwenza i-MACD ibe bucayi kakhulu, kuyilapho izilungiselelo ezinde zizoyenza ibe ncane kakhulu.[2]
Okokugcina, singakukhohlwa lokho ukubekezela kuyimfanelo ekuhwebeni. Linda amasiginali aqinisekisiwe futhi ungajahi ukungena trades esekelwe ekuhambeni kwe-MACD yesikhashana. Njengoba edumile trader UJesse Livermore wake wathi, “Akuzange kube ukucabanga kwami okungenzele imali enkulu. Bekuhlezi ngihlezi mina.”[3] Lesi seluleko siyiqiniso ekuhwebeni kwe-MACD; linda isignali efanele, bese uthatha isinyathelo esiwujuqu.
[1] UCharles Dow. "I-Dow's Theory of Markets." I-Wall Street Journal, ngo-1901.
[2] Gerald Appel. "Ukuhlaziywa Kobuchwepheshe: Amathuluzi Amandla Abatshalizimali Abakhuthele." I-FT Press, 2005.
[3] Jesse Livermore. "Izinkumbulo Ze-Stock Operator." UJohn Wiley & Sons, ngo-1923.
4.1. Ukugwema Izimpawu Zamanga
I-Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) iyithuluzi elinamandla elisezandleni zomtshali-zimali ohlakaniphile, kodwa alinangqondo. Enye yezingibe ezivame kakhulu ukuwa ngenxa yezimpawu zamanga, okungaholela ezinqumweni ezimbi zokuhweba.
Ukuqonda indlela yokuhlonza nokugwema lezi zimpawu ezingamanga kungathuthukisa kakhulu isu lakho lokuhweba. Okokuqala, kubalulekile unganciki kuphela ku-MACD ngezinqumo zakho zokuhweba. Kufanele isetshenziswe ngokuhambisana nezinye izinkomba namathuluzi ukuqinisekisa ukuhlaziya okunembe kakhudlwana kwemakethe. Isignali eyodwa ingase idukise, kuyilapho amasignali amaningana ahambisanayo ngokuvamile eyinkomba enamandla yokunyakaza kwentengo okuzayo.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, kubalulekile baqonde izimo zemakethe ohweba ngaphansi kwazo. Izilungiselelo ezihlukene ze-MACD zisebenza kangcono ezimeni ezihlukene zemakethe. Isibonelo, emakethe eguquguqukayo, i-MACD ingase ikhiqize izimpawu eziningi zamanga, kuyilapho emakethe ehamba phambili, ingaba nembe impela.
Enye indlela yokugwema izimpawu zamanga iwukuba sebenzisa i-MACD ngokuhambisana nomugqa wesiginali. Ulayini wesiginali uyi-EMA yezinsuku eziyi-9 yomugqa we-MACD. Njengesilinganiso esinyakazayo senkomba, ingasebenza njengokuphuma kahle kwezimpawu ze-MACD. Ngokuvumelana ne Investopedia, lapho i-MACD iwela ngaphezu komugqa wesignali, inikeza isignali ye-bullish, ebonisa ukuthi kungase kube isikhathi esihle sokuthenga. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, lapho i-MACD iwela ngaphansi komugqa wesignali, inikeza isignali ye-bearish.
Okokugcina, cabanga nge- isikhathi esibekelwe isu lakho lokuhweba. Izikhathi ezimfishane zingase ziveze amasiginali angamanga amaningi, kuyilapho ubude besikhathi bungase bunikeze amasignali athembeke kakhulu. Indlela evamile ukusebenzisa i-MACD eshadini lamasonto onke ukuchaza ukuthambekela okuphelele bese usebenzisa ishadi lansuku zonke ukuze ubeke isikhathi sakho. trades.
Ngokuqonda lawa ma-nuances, ungagwema ugibe lwezimpawu ezingamanga futhi wenze i-MACD ibe yingxenye ebalulekile yesu lakho lokuhweba.
4.2. Ukusebenzisa i-MACD Ezimweni Ezihlukene Zemakethe
The I-MACD (Ukuhambisa Isilinganiso Se-Convergence Divergence) iyithuluzi elisebenza ngezindlela eziningi ngendlela emangalisayo elingasetshenziswa ezimeni ezihlukene zemakethe. Kuwusizo ikakhulukazi ekuhlonzeni amasiginali wokuthenga nokuthengisa kuzo zombili izimakethe ezithrendayo nezihambisana nobubanzi.
Phakathi ku imakethe ehamba phambili, i-MACD ingasiza traders ihlonze izindawo zokungena nokuphuma ezingaba khona. Lapho ulayini we-MACD uwela ngaphezu komugqa wesiginali, imvamisa kuba isiginali ye-bullish engaphakamisa isikhathi esihle sokuthenga. Ngokuphambene, lapho ulayini we-MACD weqa ngaphansi komugqa wesiginali, ngokuvamile ubonakala njengesignali ye-bearish futhi ingase ibonise ukuthi yisikhathi esihle sokuthengisa.
Phakathi ku imakethe ehambisana nebanga, i-MACD nayo ingaba usizo. TradeI-rs ivame ukubheka ukuhlukana phakathi kwe-MACD nesenzo senani njengophawu lokuhlehla okungaba khona. Isibonelo, uma intengo yenza ukwehla okuphansi kodwa i-MACD yenza ukwehla okuphezulu, lokhu kwehluka kwe-bullish kungase kuphakamise ukuthi ukuthambekela kokwehla kulahlekelwa umfutho futhi ukuguqulwa kungase kube emakhadini.
Kodwa-ke, njenganoma yiliphi ithuluzi lokuhweba, i-MACD ayinabo ubuwula. Kubalulekile ukulisebenzisa ngokuhambisana nezinye izinkomba nezindlela zokuhlaziya ukuze kwandiswe amathuba okuphumelela. Lokhu kufakazelwa nguJohn J. Murphy encwadini yakhe ethi 'Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets', lapho ethi, "Izimpawu ezinhle kakhulu zanikezwa ukwehlukana kwe-MACD-Histogram."
Ukufunda i-histogram ye-MACD inganikeza imininingwane eyengeziwe. Uma i-histogram ivuma, ikhombisa ukuthi umugqa we-MACD ungaphezulu komugqa wesiginali futhi ungaphakamisa umfutho we-bullish. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, lapho i-histogram inegethivu, kusho ukuthi umugqa we-MACD ungaphansi komugqa wesiginali futhi ungaphakamisa umfutho we-bearish.
Traders angabheka futhi ukwehlukana kwe-histogram njengenye isignali engaba khona. Isibonelo, uma intengo yenza ukuphakama okuphezulu kodwa i-histogram yenza ukuphakama okuphansi, lokhu kwehluka kwe-bearish kungase kuphakamise ukuthi ukuthambekela okukhuphukayo kulahlekelwa umusi futhi ukuguqulwa kungase kusondele.
Khumbula, i-MACD iyithuluzi elilodwa nje ku-a trader's arsenal. Isebenza kahle kakhulu uma isetshenziswa njengengxenye yesu eliphelele lokuhweba, kucatshangelwa ezinye izinkomba zobuchwepheshe, ukuhlaziywa okuyisisekelo, kanye nomuzwa wemakethe.
4.3. Ukulawulwa Kwengozi ekuhwebeni kwe-MACD
Ukuqonda nokusebenzisa ukulawulwa kwezinhlekelele kuyisici esibalulekile Ukuhweba kwe-MACD. I-Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) iyinkomba yomfutho elandelayo ekhombisa ubudlelwano phakathi kwezilinganiso ezimbili ezihambayo zenani lezokuphepha. Kuyithuluzi elibalulekile, kodwa njengawo wonke amasu okuhweba, alinangqondo.
Ukuphathwa kweengozi kulo mongo ikakhulukazi kuhilela ukubeka a ukuyeka ukulahlekelwa izinga. Ukulahlekelwa kokumiswa yi-oda elifakwe nge broker ukuthengisa isibambiso uma sifinyelela inani elithile. MACD traders ngokuvamile beka ukulahlekelwa kokuma kwabo ekujikeni kwakamuva phezulu noma ukushwiba phansi ukuze kukhawulwe ukulahlekelwa okungaba khona. Kuwumkhuba ongakusiza ukuthi uvikele imali yakho lapho imakethe iphikisana nesikhundla sakho.
Futhi, traders sebenzisa i-histogram ye-MACD ukukala amandla omkhuba. Uma i-histogram ingaphezulu kukaziro futhi ikhuphuka, lokho kuyisignali eqinile ye-bullish. Uma ingaphansi kukaziro futhi iwa, leyo isignali ye-bearish eqinile. Ukuhweba lapho kuqondiswa khona kanye nokuqaphela lezi zimpawu kungasiza ekulawuleni ubungozi.
Elinye isu lokulawula ubungozi libandakanya ukubeka engcupheni iphesenti elincane lemali yakho yokuhweba kunoma iyiphi trade. Umthetho ojwayelekile wesithupha uwukubeka engcupheni engaphezu kuka-1-2% wemali yakho yokuhweba ngesikhathi esisodwa trade. Lokhu kusiza ukuqinisekisa ukuthi noma ngabe a trade iphikisana nawe, ukulahlekelwa kwakho kuzokhawulelwa.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, traders angasebenzisa ukuhlukahluka ukuphatha ubungozi. Lokhu kusho ukuthi ungabeki wonke amaqanda akho kubhasikidi owodwa. Ngokuhweba ngezimpahla ezihlukahlukene, ungakwazi ukusabalalisa ubungozi futhi ukhulise amathuba akho okwenza inzuzo.
Isilinganiso sengozi kuya komvuzo okunye okucatshangelwayo okubalulekile. Isilinganiso sengozi kuya komvuzo sikala umehluko phakathi kwe-a tradeIndawo yokungena kanye namazinga okulahlekelwa kanye nokuthatha inzuzo. Isilinganiso esingu-1:3, isibonelo, sisho ukuthi ubeka engcupheni u-1 ukuze wenze u-3. Traders ngokuvamile ukubheka trades ngesilinganiso esihle sobungozi bokuklomelisa ukukhulisa inzuzo yabo engaba khona uma kuqhathaniswa nokulahlekelwa kwabo okungaba khona.
Empeleni, ukulawulwa kwezinhlekelele ekuhwebeni kwe-MACD kuhilela inhlanganisela yezinyathelo ezihlanganisa ukusetha amazinga okulahlekelwa kokuyeka, ukuhweba ngendlela okuthambekele kuyo, ukubeka engcupheni iphesenti elincane lemali yakho kunoma yimuphi. trade, ukuhlukanisa eyakho trades, kanye nokufuna isilinganiso esihle somklomelo wokuthola umvuzo. Kumayelana nokuthatha izinqumo ezicatshangelwe kahle futhi ungazishiyi mathupha. Khumbula, inhloso ukuvikela imali yakho enkulu futhi wandise inzuzo ongase ube nayo.
Khumbula, isu elizwakalayo lokulawula ubungozi yilokho okuhlukanisa umuntu osekhulile trader kusuka ku-novice. Kuyisisekelo sempumelelo yesikhathi eside ekuhwebeni. Ngakho-ke, tshala isikhathi sakho ekuqondeni nasekusebenziseni la masu. Ukuhweba kwakho okuzayo kuzokubonga.
