Yiziphi izindlela ezingcono kakhulu zokuhlehlisa amasu okuhweba?

1. Ukuqonda Ukubaluleka Kokwenza I-Backtesting

Emhlabeni osezingeni eliphezulu we forex, crypto, Futhi CFD ukuhweba, umuntu akakwazi ukubukela phansi amandla esu lokuhweba elakhiwe kahle futhi elihlolwe kahle. Kufana nepulani yesakhiwo esimangalisayo esiklanywe ngobunyoninco, impumelelo yakhona encike kakhulu kusisekelo esabekwa phakathi nokuqalwa kwayo. Kulapho ukubuyisela emuva iyangena, isebenza njengethuluzi elibalulekile le traders ukuqinisekisa zabo amasu ukuhweba ngaphambi kokungena emanzini aguquguqukayo ezimakethe zezimali.

Ukubuyisela emuva, empeleni, kuyindlela lapho usebenzisa khona isu lakho lokuhweba kudatha yomlando ukuze ubone ukuthi ngabe lenze kanjani. Ngokwenza lokhu, ungathola imininingwane ngenzuzo engaba khona, ubungozi obuhilelekile, kanye nokusebenza kahle okuphelele kwesu lakho. Kufana nomshini wesikhathi okuvumela ukuthi ubuyele emuva ngesikhathi, indawo trades kususelwa kuqhinga lakho, bese uya phambili ngokushesha ukuze ubone imiphumela.

• Inzuzo: Esinye sezici ezibaluleke kakhulu ezivezwa yi-backtesting yinzuzo engaba khona yesu lakho. Inikeza umbono obanzi wokuthi isu lakho belizosebenza kanjani ngaphansi kwezimo ezihlukene zemakethe.
• Risk Ukuhlola: I-Backtesting iphinde ikuvumela ukuthi uqonde ubungozi obungaba khona esuni lakho. Kukusiza ukuthi ukhombe ukwehla okuphezulu, isilinganiso sengozi/somvuzo, namanye amamethrikhi engozi ebalulekile.
• Ukusebenza Kwesu: Ngokubuyisela emuva, ungabheka ukusebenza kwesu lakho. Kukusiza ukuthi uqonde ukuthi isu lakho lingamelana yini Ukukhishwa kwemakethe futhi ilethe izinzuzo ezingashintshi.

Kodwa-ke, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi nakuba ukuhlolwa kwe-backtesting kunikeza inkundla eqinile yokuhlolwa kwamasu, akunaphutha. Izimakethe zezimali zithonywa inqwaba yezinto, futhi ukusebenza kwangaphambilini akuhlali kuyinkomba yemiphumela yesikhathi esizayo. Ngakho-ke, kubalulekile ukusebenzisa i-backtesting njengelinye lamathuluzi amaningi kunqolobane yakho yokuhweba, kunebhola lekristalu elibikezela imiphumela yesikhathi esizayo.

Ekugcineni, ukubaluleka kokubuyisela emuva kusekwazini kwayo ukunikeza inetha yokuphepha, evumelayo traders ukuhlola amanzi ngaphambi kokungena ngekhanda ezweni lokuhweba elingalindelekile. Kuyithuluzi elinamandla okuthi, uma lisetshenziswa ngendlela efanele, lingakhuphula kakhulu amathuba akho okuphumelela emhlabeni oguquguqukayo we forex, crypto kanye CFD Ukuhweba.

1.1. Incazelo ye-Backtesting

Ukubuyela emuva kufana nesifanisi sendiza traders. Ibavumela ukuthi bahlole amasu abo ngaphandle kokufaka imali yangempela engozini, njengoba nje abashayeli bezindiza bekwazi ukucija amakhono abo ngaphandle kwengozi yendiza yangempela. Ngokudlala kabusha ukusebenza kwemakethe okwedlule, traders ingathola imininingwane ngemiphumela engaba khona yesikhathi esizayo.

Ubuhle bokubuyela emuva busemandleni ayo okunikeza ingcebo yolwazi. Ingadalula ukwehla okungaba khona, izici zenzuzo, kanye nesilinganiso somvuzo wengozi wesu elithile. Kungasiza ngisho traders khomba isikhathi esilungile sokungena nokuphuma trades.

Noma kunjalo, kubalulekile ukuqaphela lokho i-backtesting ayilona ibhola lekristalu. Isekelwe kudatha yomlando, futhi njengoba isisho sisho, ukusebenza kwangaphambilini akubonisi imiphumela yesikhathi esizayo.

Lapho uqala uhambo lokubuyela emuva, kubalulekile ukugcina amaphuzu abalulekile ambalwa engqondweni:

• Ikhwalithi Yedatha: Ukunemba kwemiphumela yakho yokuhlola i-backtesting kuhambisana ngokuqondile nekhwalithi yedatha yakho. Qinisekisa ukuthi usebenzisa idatha ethembekile, yekhwalithi ephezulu ukuze uthole imiphumela enembile.
• Ukuqagela Okungokoqobo: Kulula ukuwela ogibeni lokuthuthukisa kakhulu isu lakho ngokusekelwe kudatha yomlando. Khumbula ukwenza ukuqagela okungokoqobo mayelana nokushelela, izindleko zokusebenza, nezinye izici ezingase zibe nomthelela emiphumeleni yakho ekuhwebeni kwesikhathi sangempela.
• Ukuqina: Isu elisebenza kahle esimweni semakethe esisodwa lingase lingasebenzi kahle kwesinye. Hlola isu lakho kuzo zonke izimo zemakethe ezihlukene ukuze uqinisekise ukuqina kwayo.

Ngokuqonda incazelo nokubaluleka kwe-backtesting, tradeI-rs ingazulazula kangcono emanzini aneziyaluyalu ezimakethe zezimali futhi andise namathuba abo okuphumelela.

1.2. Iqhaza Lokubuyela Emuva Ekuhwebeni

I-Backtesting iqhawe elingaqashiwe lamasu okuhweba ngempumelelo. Kuyisinyathelo esibalulekile esihlukanisa i-amateur traders kusuka kochwepheshe abanolwazi emhlabeni we forex, crypto, noma CFD ukuhweba. Ngokulingisa isu ngedatha yomlando, ukuhlola okusemuva kunikeza umbono wempumelelo engaba khona noma ukwehluleka uhlelo lokuhweba.

Kungani i-backtesting ibalulekile? Inikeza isheke langempela lamasu akho okuhweba. Kulula ukubanjwa yinjabulo yokudala isu elisha, kodwa ngaphandle kokuhlehla, empeleni uhweba ngokungaboni. I-Backtesting ikunikeza ithuba lokulungisa kahle isu lakho, uhlonze izingibe ezingaba khona, futhi ulungise indlela yakho ngaphambi kokufaka imali yangempela engozini.

I-backtesting nayo ifaka ukuzethemba. Ngokubona isu lakho liphumelela endaweni elingiswe kuyo, uzokwakha ukuzethemba okudingekayo ukuze unamathele ohlelweni lwakho lapho imakethe iba nzima. Lesi sikhangiso sezengqondovantage ayikwazi ukweqisa.

Nokho, ukubuyisela emuva okuphumelelayo akukhona nje ukusebenzisa izifaniso. Kumayelana nokuqonda nokuhumusha imiphumela. Lokhu kuhilela ukungena ngokujulile kudatha, ukufuna amaphethini, ukuhlola ingozi kanye nomvuzo izilinganiso, kanye nokuqonda izimo zemakethe phakathi nenkathi yokubuyisela emuva.

• Ukubonwa kwephethini: Ukubuyisela emuva okuphumelelayo kukuvumela ukuthi ubone amaphethini avelayo angabonisa amathuba okuhweba anenzuzo.
• Ukuhlola Ubungozi Nomvuzo: Akukhona nje ukuhlonza okunenzuzo trades; kumayelana nokuqonda ubungozi obuhambisana nalezo trades. I-Backtesting ikusiza ukuthi ulawule ubungozi bakho ngokukunikeza isithombe esicacile sokulahlekelwa okungaba khona kanye nezinzuzo.
• Ukuhlaziywa Kwesimo Semakethe: Imakethe ayimile; ilokhu ishintsha njalo. Ukuqonda izimo zemakethe phakathi nesikhathi sakho sokubuyisela emuva kungakunikeza imininingwane yokuthi isu lakho lingenza kanjani ngaphansi kwezimo ezahlukene.

Khumbula, ukubuyisela emuva akusona isiqinisekiso sempumelelo yesikhathi esizayo, kodwa kuyithuluzi elinamandla elingakhuphula kakhulu amathuba akho okuhweba okunenzuzo. Ngokusebenzisa amandla e-backtesting, ungathatha ukuhweba kwakho ukuyise kwelinye izinga.

1.3. Izinzuzo ze-Backtesting

Ukungena ezinzuzweni ze-backtesting, kufana nokuba nebhola lekristalu elingabikezela ikusasa lesu lakho lokuhweba. Isikhangiso sokuqala nesibonakala kakhuluvantage iyona ikhono lokuhlola ukusebenza kwesu lakho ngaphandle kokufaka imali yangempela engozini. Ukubuyela emuva kuvumela traders ukulingisa isu labo lokuhweba kudatha yemakethe yomlando, ngaleyo ndlela inikeze ukuqonda okuphelele kokuthi ibizokwenza kanjani ngaphansi kwezimo zemakethe ezifanayo.

I-Backtesting inikeza ithuba lokuthuthukisa isu lakho. Ngokuhlola amapharamitha ahlukene, traders bangalungisa isu labo ukuze bathole imbuyiselo ephezulu kakhulu. Isibonelo, ungathola ukuthi isu lakho lisebenza kangcono ekubhanqweni kohlobo lwemali oluthile noma ngesikhathi esithile sosuku.

• Ukwenza ngcono ukuphathwa kwezinhlekelele enye inzuzo ebalulekile yokuhlehla emuva. Ngokuqonda umlando wesu lakho, ungalungiselela kangcono ukulahlekelwa okungase kube khona futhi ulungise imingcele yengozi yakho ngokufanele. Lokhu kungaba wusizo ekulondolozeni imali yakho yokuhweba ngezikhathi zezimo zemakethe ezingezinhle.
• Ukubuyela emuva kungaphinda khulisa ukuzethemba kwakho esu lakho lokuhweba. Ukubona isu lakho liphumelela endaweni elingiswe kuyo kunganikeza amandla angokwengqondo adingekayo ukuze unamathele kuhlelo lwakho, ngisho nangezikhathi zokungaqiniseki kwemakethe.

Okokugcina, ukubuyisela emuva kuyasiza bona amaphutha angenzeka esu lakho. Alikho isu elingenasici, futhi ukubuyisela emuva kungadalula ubuthakathaka obungase bungabonakali endaweni yokuhweba bukhoma. Ngokubona la maphutha kusenesikhathi, traders bangenza izinguquko ezidingekayo ukuze bathuthukise ukuqina kwesu labo. Le nqubo ephindaphindayo yokubuyisela emuva, ukukhomba ubuthakathaka, kanye nokucwenga isu kungathuthukisa kakhulu ukusebenza kwakho kokuhweba ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

2. Imikhuba Engcono Kakhulu Yokusekela Amasu Okuhweba

Lapho utshuza emhlabeni we forex, crypto, noma CFD ukuhweba, ithuluzi elilodwa elibalulekile ku-arsenal yakho kufanele kube umkhuba wokubuyisela emuva amasu okuhweba. Le nqubo inikezela ngemininingwane ebalulekile ekusebenzeni okungaba khona kwesu lakho lokuhweba, elikuvumela ukuthi ulicwenge futhi ulilungise ngaphambi kokufaka engcupheni noma iyiphi imali yangempela.

Kubalulekile uku qinisekisa ikhwalithi yedatha yakho. Ukunemba kwemiphumela yakho ye-backtest kuncike ngokuqondile kukhwalithi yedatha yomlando esetshenzisiwe. Yiba njalo forex, cryptocurrency, noma CFDs, hlala thola idatha yakho kubahlinzeki abathembekile futhi uqinisekise ukuthi ihlanganisa isikhathi esanele sesu lakho lokuhweba elihlosiwe.

Olandelayo, akhawunti ngezindleko zokwenziwayo. Lokhu kungase kuhlanganise ukusabalala, amakhomishini, ukushelela, nezindleko zezimali. Ukuziba lezi zindleko kungaholela ekubuyeni emuva okunethemba ngokweqile, okungase kudukise uma kusetshenziswa ekuhwebeni komhlaba wangempela.

Omunye umkhuba ongcono kakhulu uku gwema ukugqoka ngokweqile. Ukufaka i-overfitting kwenzeka uma isu lakho liqondiswe eduze kakhulu nedatha edlule, kunciphisa ukusebenza kwayo kudatha entsha. Ukuze ugweme lokhu, kufanele usebenzise ukuhlola okungaphandle kwesampula, okungukuthi, ukuhlola isu lakho kudatha engabonakali.

• Ukuhlola okungaphandle kwesampula: Lokhu kuhlanganisa ukuhlukanisa idatha yakho ibe amasethi amabili: elokudala isu lakho (ngesampula) nelilodwa ukulihlola (ngaphandle kwesampula). Idatha yesampula isetshenziselwa ukuthuthukisa isu, kuyilapho idatha engaphandle kwesampula isetshenziselwa ukuhlola ukusebenza kwayo.
• Ukuhlolwa kokuya phambili: Lolu uhlobo oluthuthukisiwe lokuhlola ngaphandle kwesampula. Kubandakanya ukuqhubeka nokwenza kahle kabusha isu lakho ngokuqhubekayo, ukulingisa indlela ongasebenzisa ngayo isu empilweni yangempela.

Ekugcineni, njalo uqinisekise imiphumela yakho. Ngemva kokwenza i-backtest, ungathathi imiphumela ngenani lobuso. Kunalokho, ziqinisekise ngokusebenzisa ama-backtests amaningi anemingcele ehlukene noma amasethi edatha. Lokhu kuzosiza ukukhomba ukuthi impumelelo yesu lakho idalwe yikhono noma inhlanhla nje.

Khumbula, ukubuyisela emuva akusona isiqinisekiso sokusebenza kwesikhathi esizayo. Kodwa-ke, ukulandela lezi zindlela ezinhle kakhulu kungakusiza ukuthi uthuthukise amasu okuhweba asebenza kangcono futhi ukwandise amathuba akho okuphumelela emhlabeni oguquguqukayo we forex, crypto, futhi CFD Ukuhweba.

2.1. Ukusebenzisa Idatha Yekhwalithi

Emkhakheni wamasu okuhweba okubuyisela emuva, ukubaluleka kokusebenzisa idatha yekhwalithi akukwazi ukweqiwa. Isebenza njengomgogodla wesu lakho lonke, ithonya imiphumela ye-backtest yakho futhi, ekugcineni, impumelelo yekusasa lakho. trades.

Idatha yekhwalithi inokwethenjelwa, inembile, futhi ibanzi. Kufanele ihlanganise isikhathi esiningi sokuhlinzeka ngedathasethi eqinile yokuhlehla. Lokhu kuvumela ukuhlolwa okunembe kakhulu nokungokoqobo kokusebenza kwesu emijikelezweni ehlukene yemakethe.

Thatha isibonelo, uma usendaweni ye forex noma ukuhweba nge-crypto, idatha yakho kufanele ihlanganise imininingwane efana nokuvula, ukuvala, amanani aphezulu, naphansi, kanye namavolumu okuhweba. Lokhu kuqinisekisa ukuthi usebenza ngesithombe esiphelele somsebenzi wemakethe, kunokubuka okuyizicucu okungase kuhlanekezele imiphumela yakho.

Ngenkathi uthola idatha yekhwalithi, cabanga okulandelayo:

1. Qinisekisa ukuthi idatha injalo ahlanzekile: Lokhu kusho ukuthi kufanele ingabi namaphutha, ishiywe, noma ingahambisani okungahlanekezela imiphumela yakho yangemuva.
2. Qinisekisa ukuthi idatha injalo ephelele: Idatha engaphelele ingaholela emiphumeleni engalungile namasu angalungile. Qinisekisa ukuthi zonke izinkambu ezidingekayo zigcwalisiwe futhi idatha ifaka isikhathi esibekiwe esidingekayo.
3. Qinisekisa ukuthi idatha injalo efanele: Idatha kufanele ihambisane nesu lakho elithile lokuhweba. Isibonelo, uma isu lakho lisekelwe ezinguqukweni zanjalo ngehora, idatha yansuku zonke ngeke yanele.

Khumbula, idatha phakathi, udoti uphumile. Izinga ledatha yakho lithinta ngqo ukuthembeka kwemiphumela yakho yokuhlolwa kwe-backtest. Ngakho-ke, ukutshala isikhathi nomzamo ekutholeni nasekuqinisekiseni idatha yekhwalithi kuyisinyathelo esibalulekile enqubweni yokubuyisela emuva.

2.2. Ukusetha Amapharamitha Angokoqobo

Ukuzulazula olwandle oluyaluzayo lwe forex, crypto, futhi CFD ukuhweba akudingi nje iso elibukhali lemikhuba yemakethe, kodwa futhi isu eliqinile. Isisekelo sanoma yiliphi isu lokuhweba eliyimpumelelo yi ukulungiselelwa kwepharamitha okungokoqobo. Lesi isinyathelo esibalulekile sokuhlehlisa amasu akho okuhweba kanye nesisodwa leso traders ngokuvamile awanaki, okuholela emiphumeleni esontekile kanye nokulindelwe okuyiphutha.

Imingcele engokoqobo yimingcele lapho isu lakho lokuhweba lisebenza khona. Yiziqondiso ezishoyo ukuthi kufanele ungene nini noma uphume nini a trade, izinga lobungozi ozimisele ukubuthatha, kanye nokuthi ingakanani imali ozimisele ukuyitshala. Ukusetha la mapharamitha aphezulu kakhulu noma aphansi kakhulu kungaholela emiphumeleni eyinhlekelele, kuyilapho ukusethwa kahle kungavula indlela eya enzuzweni engaguquki.

2.3. Ihlanganisa Izindleko Zokwenziwe

Emkhakheni wokuhweba, udeveli uvame ukuba nemininingwane. Eminye imininingwane enjalo engaba nomthelela omkhulu ekusebenzeni kwesu lakho lokuhweba yi izindleko zokuthengiselana. Ngenkathi uhlehlisa isu lakho lokuhweba, kubalulekile ukufaka izindleko zokusebenza ukuze uthole ukuhlaziya okuyiqiniso kwenzuzo yesu.

Izindleko zokwenziwe zifaka phakathi broker amakhomishini, izindleko zokusabalalisa, nokushelela. Broker wemisebenzi yizinkokhelo ezikhokhiswa nguwe broker ukufeza trades. Spread izindleko bheka umehluko phakathi kwebhidi kanye nezintengo zokubuza, futhi ukuhlunga kwenzeka uma intengo yangempela yokusetshenziswa ihluka enanini elilindelekile ngenxa yokuguquguquka kwemakethe.

• Ukuziba izindleko zokwenziwayo kungaholela kumphumela we-backtest onethemba ngokweqile, okungase kukusethele ukudumazeka lapho usebenzisa isu ekuhwebeni kwesikhathi sangempela.
• Kubalulekile futhi ukukhumbula ukuthi izindleko zomsebenzi zingahluka ngokuhamba kwesikhathi naphakathi kokuhlukile brokers. Ngakho-ke, ukusebenzisa isilinganiso esimaphakathi kungase kungabi yindlela engcono kakhulu.
• Cabangela ukusebenzisa uhla lwezindleko zokwenziwayo ekuhlolweni kwakho okusemuva ukuze uphendule lokhu kuhluka futhi ugcizelele ukuhlola isu lakho ngaphansi kwezimo ezihlukene.

Ukubalwa kwezimali kwezindleko zokwenziwayo ekuhloleni kwakho i-backtesting akunikezeli kuphela ukuboniswa okunembe kakhudlwana kwenzuzo engaba khona kodwa futhi kuveza ukuthi isu lakho lingase libe bucayi kangakanani ekushintsheni kulezi zindleko. Isu elihlala linenzuzo kulo lonke uhla lwezindleko zomsebenzi kungenzeka liqine futhi lithembeke emhlabeni wangempela.

2.4. Ukuhlola Kuzo zonke Izimo Ezihlukene Zemakethe

Emhlabeni wokuhweba, kubalulekile ukuqinisekisa ukuthi isu lakho lingamelana nazo zonke izinhlobo zezimo zemakethe. Lapha kulapho ukuhlola kuzo zonke izimo zemakethe ezahlukene uyadlala. Lo mkhuba ubandakanya ukusebenzisa isu lakho ngokusebenzisa amasethi edatha omlando amele izimo zemakethe ezahlukahlukene. Akwanele ukuhlola isu lakho emakethe yezinkunzi wedwa; idinga ukufakazela ukuqina kwayo ezimakethe ze-bearish, eceleni, nasezimakethe eziguquguqukayo kakhulu.

1. I-Bullish Market: Lesi yisimo semakethe lapho amanani enyuka noma kulindeleke ukuthi anyuke. Igama elithi "imakethe yezinkunzi" livame ukusetshenziselwa ukubhekisela emakethe yamasheya kodwa lingasetshenziswa kunoma yini traded, njengamabhondi, izindlu ezithengiswayo, izimali, nezimpahla.
2. I-Bearish Market: Imakethe yamabhere iphambene nemakethe yezinkunzi. Kuyisimo semakethe lapho amanani ehla khona noma okulindeleke ukuba ehle.
3. Imakethe Eseceleni/Eboshelwe Ebangeni: Lena imakethe engakhuli noma enciphayo enanini kodwa egcina izinga elizinzile. Lezi zimo zingahlala amasonto ambalwa noma ngisho nangaphezulu.
4. Imakethe Eguquguqukayo: Imakethe eguquguqukayo inokushintshashintsha njalo, okukhulu kwentengo. Lokhu kuguquguquka kungaba umphumela wemicimbi yezomnotho, izindaba zemakethe, noma ezinye izici.

Ngokuhlola isu lakho kuzo zonke lezi zimo zemakethe ezihlukene, uzothola ukuqonda okuphelele kwamandla ayo kanye nobuthakathaka. Ngenxa yalokho, uzolungela kangcono ukwenza izinguquko ezidingekayo futhi uthuthukise ukusebenza kwayo kukonke. Khumbula, isu elenza kahle esimweni esithile semakethe lingase lingakwenzi lokho kwesinye. Ngakho, ukuhlola okuhlukahlukene kuyisinyathelo esibalulekile ekucwengisiseni isu lakho lokuhweba. Kufana nokuhlolwa kwe-litmus okuhlukanisa i- ukolweni emakhoba, ikusiza ukuthi ubone amasu angamelana ngempela nesikhathi.

3. Amasu Okuhlola Okusemuva Okuthuthukile

Ukungena ujule endaweni yokuhlola emuva, kubalulekile ukuqonda amasu athuthukile angathuthukisa kakhulu ukusebenza kwesu lakho lokuhweba. Enye yalezo zindlela ithi **Ukuthuthukiswa Kwe-Walk-Forward (WFO)**. Le nqubo ihilela ukuthuthukisa isu kudatha edlule, bese 'uyihambisa' phambili ngedatha engabonakali ukuze uqinisekise imiphumela. Kuyinqubo ephindaphindayo esiza ukugwema ugibe lokulinganisa ijika futhi iqinisekise ukuthi isu lakho liqinile ngokwanele ukuphatha izimo zemakethe ezahlukahlukene.

Enye indlela ethuthukisiwe iyi-**Monte Carlo simulation**. Le ndlela ikuvumela ukuthi usebenzise ukulingisa okuningi kuqhinga lakho lokuhweba, isikhathi ngasinye ushintsha ukulandelana kwe trades. Imiphumela ihlinzeka ngokusatshalaliswa kwemiphumela, enikeza imininingwane mayelana nengcuphe engaba khona kanye nokubuyiselwa kwesu lakho. Kuyithuluzi elinamandla elisiza ukuqonda ukungaqiniseki nokungahleliwe okukhona ekuhwebeni.

• Ukuhlola Okungaphandle Kwesampula esinye isici esibalulekile sokubuyela emuva okuthuthukile. Kubandakanya ukubekela ingxenye yedatha yakho ngezinjongo zokuhlola kuphela. Le datha ayisetshenziswa ngesikhathi senqubo yokuthuthukisa, okuqinisekisa ukuhlolwa okungachemile kokusebenza kwecebo lakho.
• Ukuhlolwa Kwezimakethe Eziningi kuyindlela ehlola isu lakho ezimakethe ezahlukene. Lokhu kungaveza ukuthi ingabe isu lakho liqondene nemakethe noma linamandla okwenza inzuzo kuzo zonke izimakethe ezahlukahlukene.

Izindlela zokuhlola ezithuthukile aziyona inhlamvu yomlingo. Zingamathuluzi okusiza ekuthuthukiseni isu eliqinile lokuhweba. Okubalulekile wukuzisebenzisa ngobuhlakani nangokuhambisana nokuqonda okuqinile kokuguquguquka kwemakethe kanye nesayikholoji yokuhweba.

3.1. Hamba-Phambili Ukuhlaziya

Emhlabeni oguquguqukayo we forex, crypto, futhi CFD ukuhweba, ikhono lokubuyela emuva ngokunembile amasu okuhweba kuwushintsho lomdlalo. Indlela eqinile nevame ukunganakwa kule nqubo i-Walk-Forward Analysis (WFA). I-WFA iwuhlobo lokuhlola ngaphandle kwesampula oluhlose ukulingisa ukuthi isu lingenza kanjani uma traded ngesikhathi sangempela. Kuyindlela ebheke phambili eklanyelwe ukuqinisekisa ukusebenza kwesu lakho lokuhweba ezimeni ezihlukahlukene zemakethe.

Inqubo ibandakanya izinyathelo ezimbili: ukuthuthukisa futhi yokuqinisekisa. Phakathi nesigaba sokuthuthukisa, isu lokuhweba liyalungiswa ukuze kufezwe ukusebenza okungcono kakhulu ngokusekelwe kudatha yomlando. Isigaba sokuqinisekisa, ngakolunye uhlangothi, sihlola isu elithuthukisiwe kusethi ehlukile yedatha ukuze kuhlolwe ukusebenza kwayo.

Esinye sesikhangiso esingukhiyevantageI-WFA yikhono layo lokunciphisa ubungozi bokufakwa kwejika. Ukulinganisa ijika kuwugibe ovamile ekuhloleni emuva lapho isu lithuthukiswe ngokweqile kudatha yangaphambilini, okulenza lingenzeki kahle ekuhwebeni kwangempela. Ngokusebenzisa idatha engabonakali ukuze kuqinisekiswe, i-WFA iqinisekisa ukuthi isu alenzelwanga nje kuphela idatha yesikhathi esidlule kodwa livumelana nezimo zemakethe zesikhathi esizayo.

• Isinyathelo 1: Ukuthuthukisa - Lungisa kahle isu lakho lokuhweba usebenzisa idatha yomlando.
• Isinyathelo 2: Ukuqinisekiswa kwe- - Qinisekisa isu elithuthukisiwe usebenzisa isethi ehlukile yedatha.

I-WFA ifana nokuzilolongela ingubo yesu lakho lokuhweba, ikunikeza ukuhlolwa okunengqondo kokuthi ingenza kanjani uma ikhethini likhuphuka emakethe ebukhoma. Kuyinqubo ephindaphindayo engasiza traders bacwenga amasu abo, bawenze aqine futhi avumelane nezimo zemakethe ezishintsha njalo.

3.2. Monte Carlo Simulation

Emkhakheni wamasu okuhweba okubuyisela emuva, indlela eyodwa enamandla neqinile egqamayo ukulingisa kwe-Monte Carlo. Le nqubo, eqanjwe ngedolobha lekhasino elidumile, ifana nokubheja emasondweni e-roulette ezimakethe zezimali. Ivumela traders ukusebenzisa izilingo eziningi noma 'ukulingiswa' kwesu labo lokuhweba, isikhathi ngasinye beshintsha ukulandelana kwe trade imiphumela yokukhiqiza imiphumela eminingi engaba khona.

Ukulingisa kweMonte Carlo iyimodeli engenzeka esebenzisa ukungahleliwe ukuxazulula izinkinga ezingase zibe deterministic ngokomgomo. Isebenza ngokuchaza imodeli yemiphumela engaba khona yomcimbi othile (njenge-a trade), bese usebenzisa ukulingisa kwalowo mcimbi izikhathi eziningi. Imiphumela yalezi zifaniso ibe isisetshenziswa ukwenza izibikezelo mayelana nomphumela womhlaba wangempela.

Ngokwesimo se forex, crypto noma CFD ukuhweba, Monte Carlo sekulingisa kungaba wusizo ngokukhethekile. Ivumela traders ukuhlola amasu abo ngenani elibanzi lezimo zemakethe ezingaba khona, esikhundleni sesethi eyodwa yedatha yomlando. Lokhu kunganikeza ukuhlolwa okungokoqobo nokuphelele kwezingcuphe nembuyiselo yesu.

Isibonelo, a trader ingase isebenzise ukulingiswa kwe-Monte Carlo ukuhlola a forex isu lokuhweba ngokumelene nenhlanganisela ehlukene yezimo zemakethe, njengamazinga ahlukahlukene okuguquguquka, izimali, nezinkomba zezomnotho. Ngokusebenzisa izinkulungwane noma izigidi zalezi zifaniso, i trader bangathola ukuqonda okujulile kokuthi isu labo lingase lisebenze kanjani ngaphansi kwezimo ezihlukene zemakethe.

3.3. Multi-System Backtesting

Uma kuziwa ekucwengisiseni amasu okuhweba, akukho lutho oludlula amandla we Multi-System Backtesting. Le ndlela yokwenza iyakuvumela traders ukuhlola izinhlelo eziningi zokuhweba ngasikhathi sinye, zinikeze ukuqonda okuphelele kokusebenza kwazo ngaphansi kwezimo zemakethe ezihlukene.

Ubuhle be-multi-system backtesting busekhono layo lokuhlinzeka a umbono ophelele zamasu akho okuhweba. Ngokuhlola amasistimu amaningi ngesikhathi esisodwa, ungakwazi ukukhomba ukuthi yimaphi amasu asebenza kangcono ngaphansi kwezimo zemakethe ezithile. Lokhu kungakusiza ukuthi wakhe iphothifoliyo yokuhweba eqinile engamelana nezimo ezihlukene zemakethe, ngaleyo ndlela ithuthukise ukusebenza kwakho konke kokuhweba.

Kunezinyathelo ezimbalwa ezibalulekile zokuqalisa ngempumelelo i-multi-system backtesting:

1. Ukukhethwa Kwezinhlelo Zokuhweba: Khetha amasistimu okuhweba ahlukahlukene ukuze ubuyisele emuva. Lokhu kungase kuhlanganise amasu asekelwe ezinkomba ezahlukene, izikhathi ezimisiwe, noma izigaba zempahla.
2. Ukuqoqwa Kwemininingwane: Qoqa idatha yomlando yezigaba zempahla ohweba kuzo. Qinisekisa ukuthi idatha ingeyekhwalithi ephezulu futhi ihlanganisa izimo zemakethe ezihlukahlukene.
3. Ukwenza i-Backtest: Sebenzisa inkundla yokuhlola i-backtesting ethembekile ukuze wenze izivivinyo. Qinisekisa ukuthi inkundla ingakwazi ukuphatha amasistimu amaningi futhi inikeze amamethrikhi okusebenza anemininingwane.
4. Ukuhlaziywa Kwemiphumela: Linganisa ukusebenza kwesistimu ngayinye. Bheka amaphethini emiphumeleni ebonisa ukuthi isistimu ngayinye isebenza ngaphansi kwaziphi izimo zemakethe.

Khumbula, inhloso yokuhlolwa kwe-backtesting kwezinhlelo eziningi akukhona ukuthola isistimu 'ephelele' kodwa ukuqonda ukuthi amasistimu ahlukene asebenza kanjani ngaphansi kwezimo ezihlukahlukene. Lolu lwazi lungakusiza hlukanisa amasu akho okuhweba futhi ukhulise amathuba akho okuphumelela emhlabeni ongalindelekile we forex, crypto, noma CFD Ukuhweba.

4. Amaphutha Avamile Okufanele Ugweme Ekuhlolweni Okungemuva

Izwe forex, crypto, futhi CFD ukuhweba kuyinto eyinkimbinkimbi, egcwele izingibe ezingaba khona zabangaqaphile. Omunye umgodi onjalo ukusetshenziswa kabi kwe-backtesting ekuthuthukisweni kwamasu okuhweba. I-Backtesting, inqubo yokuhlola isu lokuhweba kudatha yomlando, iyithuluzi elibalulekile ku-a trader's arsenal. Kodwa-ke, uma isetshenziswe ngokungalungile, ingaholela emiphumeleni engalungile kanye namasu angalungile.

Okokuqala, ukweqisa kuyiphutha elivamile lokho traders yenza uma u-backtesting. Lokhu kwenzeka uma isu liqondiswe eduze kakhulu nedatha edlule, elenza lingasebenzi kahle ekuhwebeni kwesikhathi sangempela. Isihluthulelo sokugwema lokhu ukuqinisekisa ukuthi isu lakho liqinile futhi liyavumelana nezimo, likwazi ukuzivumelanisa nezimo ezihlukahlukene zemakethe.

• Ukuziba umthelela wemakethe: Traders bavame ukukhohlwa ukufakazela umthelela wabo trades emakethe. Okukhulu trades inganyakazisa imakethe, ithinte izintengo futhi ingahle igwebe imiphumela ye-backtest. Hlala ucabangela umthelela wemakethe ongaba khona weyakho trades lapho i-backtesting.
• Izindleko zokwenziwe zibheke phezulu: Izindleko zokwenziwe zingadla kakhulu inzuzo yakho. Ngaso sonke isikhathi faka lokhu ku-backtesting yakho ukuze uthole isithombe esinembe kakhudlwana senzuzo engaba khona.
• Ayibali ingozi: Ubungozi buyingxenye ebalulekile yokuhweba. Isu lingase libonakale linenzuzo ekubuyiseleni emuva, kodwa uma likuvezela engozini eyeqile, lingaholela ekulahlekelweni okukhulu. Ngaso sonke isikhathi cabangela isilinganiso sengozi kuya komvuzo sesu lakho.

Elinye iphutha elivamile ukulinganisa ijika. Kulapho isu lenziwe kahle ngokwedlulele ukuze lilingane nedatha yomlando, okwenza kungenzeki kahle ekuhwebeni okubukhoma. Gwema lokhu ngokusebenzisa ukuhlola okungaphandle kwesampula, okubandakanya ukuhlola isu lakho kudatha elingathuthukiswanga kuyo.

Ukuchema kokuhlola idatha inkinga engase ibe khona. Lokhu kwenzeka uma a trader ivikela ngokuphindaphindiwe amasu ahlukahlukene kusethi yedatha efanayo, okwandisa amathuba okuthola isu elibonakala linenzuzo ngenxa yenhlanhla kunokuba lisebenze kwangempela. Ukuze ugweme lokhu, sebenzisa idatha entsha ku-backtest ngayinye, futhi qaphela imiphumela ebonakala imihle kakhulu ukuthi ingaba yiqiniso.

4.1. Ukubheka ama-Outliers

Emkhakheni wamasu okuhweba okubuyisela emuva, umgodi owodwa lokho tradeOkuvame ukukhubeka kukho ukudelela umthelela wabangaphandle. Lawa amaphoyinti edatha achezuka kakhulu kokunye ukuqashelwa futhi angahlanekezela imiphumela yokuhlolwa kwakho kwasemuva. Ukuba khona kwabo ezimakethe zezimali kuyinto evamile, ngokuvamile ebangelwa izehlakalo ezingalindelekile noma izindaba zemakethe.

Isizathu esiyinhloko sokuthi kungani abangaphandle ngokuvamile benganakwa kungenxa yokuqagela okuvamile kokuthi ukunyakaza kwentengo yemakethe kulandela ukusatshalaliswa okuvamile. Kodwa-ke, empeleni, izimakethe zezimali zaziwa ngabo 'imisila enamafutha', okubonisa amathuba aphezulu oshintsho lwentengo eyeqisayo. Ukuziba lezi zikhiqizi kungaholela kumphumela we-backtest onethemba ngokweqile, kuthuntubeze ukuqina kwesu lakho lokuhweba.

Ukuze ubhekane nalolu daba, kubalulekile ukufaka amasu athinta abangaphandle kunqubo yakho yokubuyisela emuva. Ngokwesibonelo, ungase:

• Sebenzisa izinyathelo zezibalo eziqinile: Ibanga le-Median ne-interquartile alizweli kancane kuma-outliers uma kuqhathaniswa nokuchezuka kwencazelo nokujwayelekile.
• Sebenzisa izindlela zokutholwa ngaphandle: Amasu afana ne-Z-score noma indlela ye-IQR angasiza ekuhlonzeni nasekuphatheni izinto ezingaphandle.
• Cabangela izindlela ezingezona ezepharamitha: Lezi zindlela azenzi kucatshangwa mayelana nokusatshalaliswa kwedatha, okuzenza zikwazi ukumelana nabangaphandle.

Ngokuvuma nangokukhuluma ngendlela efanele abadayisi bangaphandle, uyisinyathelo esisodwa sokusondela ekuthuthukiseni isu lokuhweba elima liqinile lapho kubhekene nokuntengantenga kwezimakethe.

4.2. Ukunganaki Ukushelela

Emkhakheni wokuhweba, ukuhlunga igama elivame ukunganakwa, nokho umthelela walo emiphumeleni yokuhweba ungaba mkhulu. I-Slippage isho umehluko phakathi kwenani elilindelekile le-a trade kanye nenani i trade uyabulawa ngempela. Lokhu kwehluka kungase kuphakame ngenxa yokuntengantenga kwezimakethe noma izinkinga zezezimali futhi kuyisici esibalulekile okufanele sicatshangelwe lapho uhlehla amasu okuhweba.

Uma wenza i-backtesting, kulula ukucabanga lokho trades izokwenziwa ngamaphuzu amanani aqondile ashiwo isu lakho. Nokho, lokhu kucabangela kungaholela embonweni osontekile wokuphumelela kwesu. Iqiniso lokuhweba ukuthi ukuguquguquka kwemakethe kungabangela intengo yangempela yokwenza kwakho ukuthi ibe phezulu kancane noma ibe phansi kunentengo oyihlosile. Lo mehluko ungase ubonakale ungelutho kokukodwa trade, kodwa uma ihlanganiswa ngaphezu kwamakhulu noma izinkulungwane trades, kungaba nomthelela omkhulu kwinzuzo yakho iyonke.

Ukuze uziphendulele ngokushelela ekuhloleni kwakho emuva, hlanganisa umcabango wokushelela kumodeli yakho. Lokhu kungaba iphesenti elinqunyiwe noma isilinganiso esiguquguqukayo esisekelwe kudatha yomlando eshelelayo. Ngokwenza kanjalo, ungeza ungqimba olwengeziwe lwamaqiniso enqubweni yakho yokubuyisela emuva, okuvumela ukubonakaliswa okunembe kakhudlwana kokuthi isu lakho lizosebenza kanjani ezimweni zokuhweba bukhoma.

Qonda ukuthi ukushelela kuyingxenye yokuhweba futhi kungaba nomthelela omkhulu ekusebenzeni kwesu lakho. Faka ukuqagela kwe-slippage kumodeli yakho ye-backtesting ukuze uphendule lo mehluko ongenakugwenywa.

Ngokucabangela ukushelela, ungaqinisekisa ukuthi inqubo yakho yokubuyisela emuva ibanzi, inembile, futhi ikulungele ukubhekana nomhlaba oguquguqukayo wokuhweba.

4.3. Ukungazinaki Izici Zengqondo

Enye yezindawo ezinganakwa kakhulu kumasu okuhweba e-backtesting yi- isici somuntu. Ngenkathi ama-algorithms kanye analysis technical inganikeza umbono oyinhloso wamathrendi emakethe namandla trades, bayehluleka ukulandisa ngezici zengqondo ezingaba nomthelela omkhulu a trader's inqubo yokuthatha izinqumo.

Cabangela umthelela wokwesaba nokuhaha ezinqumweni zakho zokuhweba. Ukwesaba kungase kubangele ukuba ushiye isikhundla ngaphambi kwesikhathi, uphuthelwe inzuzo engase ikuzuzise, ​​kuyilapho ukuhaha kungase kukuholele ekubeni ubambelele endaweni yokulahlekelwa isikhathi eside kakhulu, unethemba lokushintsha okungasoze kwafika. Yomibili imizwa ingaholela ezinqumweni zokuhweba ezingezinhle ezingaba nomthelela omubi emgqeni wakho ophansi.

• Ukwesaba: Lo mzwelo ungadala traders ukuthengisa izikhundla zabo kusenesikhathi, okuholela ekuphunyukwe kwamathuba enzuzo enkulu. Amasu okubuyisela emuva kufanele abhekane nalokhu ngokuhlanganisa isu lokulawula ubungozi elibeka ngokucacile ukuyeka-ukulahlekelwa kanye namazinga okuthatha inzuzo.
• Ukuhaha: Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuhaha kungaholela traders ukubambelela ezikhundleni ezilahlekelwayo ngethemba lokuthi imakethe izophenduka. Ukubuyisela emuva kufanele kubandakanye isu lokuphuma a trade lapho izinga elithile lokulahlekelwa lifinyelelwa ukuvimbela ukulahlekelwa okwengeziwe.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuzithemba ngokweqile kungenye into engokwengqondo engaholela ekuziphatheni kokuhweba okuyingozi. Ukuzethemba ngokweqile kungaholela traders ukungazinaki izimpawu eziyisixwayiso futhi bathathe izikhundla ezinkulu kunalokho abakwazi ukuzibamba. Lokhu kungaholela ekulahlekelweni okukhulu uma imakethe iphikisana nabo. Ukuze unciphise lokhu, ukubuyisela emuva kufanele kufake isu lokulinganisa indawo eliqondana ne- tradeukubekezelela ubungozi kanye nosayizi we-akhawunti.

Kafushane, ngenkathi i-backtesting inganikeza imininingwane ebalulekile kumathrendi emakethe angaba khona kanye trades, kubalulekile ukufaka izici ezingokwengqondo esu lakho ukuze uqinisekise ukuthi lihambisana nesitayela sakho sokuhweba kanye nokubekezelela ubungozi. Lokhu ngeke kukusize nje ukuthi wenze izinqumo zokuhweba unolwazi kodwa futhi kuzothuthukisa ukusebenza kwakho kokuhweba kukonke.