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I-Crypto ETF engu-1 Yopha Imali
1.1 Kusuka Ekungeneni Kwerekhodi kuye Kokuphumayo Komlando
Ekuqaleni kuka-2024 kwazwakala njengomzuzu we-IPO we-crypto: kuvuliwe 11 Januwari 2024 Abalawuli baseMelika bazulazule ngenqwaba yokuqala yokushintshaniswa kwe-Bitcoin‑traded izimali. Ngaphansi kwamasonto amane, leyo mikhiqizo icishe icishe $10 billion ngemali entsha—isilinganiso se $125 million ngosuku-ngenkathi i-Bitcoin igijimela endaweni ephezulu yaso sonke isikhathi.
Ekupheleni kuka-February injabulo yanda. I-BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) yephule irekhodi le-ETF eshesha kakhulu $10 billion ezimpahleni—ukwenza lokho ngokulunga amasonto ayisikhombisa- ngaphambi kokutshala $20 billion ngemva kwenyanga. Kodwa-ke lokho okwaqala njenge-fire-hose yokungena kwashintsha kancane kancane kwaze kwaba ngu-2024 kwaze kwaba ngu-2025: January 2 2025 kwahlanganisa i-IBIT yokuqala yezinsuku ezintathu yokuhoxa, ephethwe $465 million ukuphuma kosuku olulodwa, nokusebenzisa kwamasonto onke kusheshisiwe kuyo yonke ingxenye.
1.2 Ububanzi Benkinga: I-Bitcoin‑ ngokumelene ne-Ethereum‑Focused Products
Okuphumayo akusatshalaliswa ngokulinganayo. Izimoto ze-Bitcoin zisabambe isabelo sengonyama sempahla (≈ $ 92 billion), kodwa futhi zibusa itheyiphu yokuhlenga: isonto eliphela 14 Ephreli 2025 wabona $751 million shiya i-Bitcoin ETFs. Imikhiqizo ye-Ethereum ixoxa indaba ehlukile—i-AUM encane (≈ $7 bhiliyoni) kodwa eqhubekayo yokungabi nantshisekelo. Esikhathini esiyizinsuku eziyi-11 ngoMashi baputshukile $358 million, kanye ne-flagship Grayscale ETHE izinikele ngaphezu ingxenye yezigidigidi zamarandi unyaka kuze kube manje njengoba abatshalizimali behluleka ukuzuza isivuno esikhulu.
1.3 Isifinyezo Sokugeleza Kwamanje (April 2025)
Isithombe sokugeleza sihlala siguquguquka. I-rebound emfushane yezinsuku ezimbili maphakathi no-Ephreli yaqedwa lapho 17 Ephreli okuqoshiwe $169.9 million ekuphumeni kwe-Bitcoin ETF, okuqhamuke umkhondo wokutakula. Idatha yangeviki ye-CoinShares manje isingenile $7.2 billion ekhishwe ezikhwameni zempahla yedijithali kusukela ekuqaleni kukaFebhuwari, esula ngempumelelo cishe yonke imali engenayo yango-2025. I-GBTC yemali ephezulu ye-Grayscale iyodwa ilinganiselwa ukuthi isicishe yaphela $20 billion kusukela ekuguqulweni—okukodwa kokukhishwa kwemali enkulu kakhulu emlandweni we-ETF.
| I-Metric | Jan-Feb 2024 (Isigaba Sokuqalisa) | I-YTD 2025 | Iviki eliphela ngomhla ka-14 Apr 2025 | I-AUM yamanje (18 Apr 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukugeleza kweNet - Bitcoin spot ETFs | + $10.1 bn | + $215 m | - $751 m | ≈ $92 bn |
| Ukugeleza kweNet - Ethereum spot ETFs | N / A | - $565 m | - $37.6 m | ≈ $7 bn |
| Ukugeleza okukhulu kosuku olulodwa (BTC ETFs) | + $1.0 bn (28 Feb 2024) | $465 m (2 Jan 2025) | $169.9 m (17 Ephreli 2025) | - |
| Ukuphuma kwe-GBTC okuhlanganisiwe | - | ≈ $20 bn | - | - |
2 I-Anatomy Yokuphuma
2.1 Ukuhudula Izimali kanye Nomjaho Ukuya Phansi
Impi yezinkokhelo eyaqubuka ngoJanuwari 2024 isiphenduke usongo olukhona kulabo abasebenza ngezindleko eziphezulu. I-Grayscale ibambe yaqina ku 1.5%, kuyilapho izimbangi ezintsha zehlise izilinganiso zezindleko zaba ngaphansi njenge 0.12% ngokusebenzisa ukuyekwa kwesikhashana. Imali ye-median spot‑Bitcoin ETF manje ihamba ngaphansi nje 0.30%. Ngawo wonke amaphoyinti esisekelo angeziwe wokungqubuzana, ukusebenza izikhala banzi—okuhlanganisa minyaka yonke nokwenza umehluko wemali ubonakale kabuhlungu kumashadi aphelele embuyiselo. Ngokumangazayo, amaphethini okusebenzisa amaphethini enkokhelo alandelela cishe isigaba esisodwa nesisodwa: I-GBTC isophe cishe US$20 billion kusukela ekuguqulweni, kuyilapho ontanga abangaphansi kuka-0.30 % beqhubeka nokuheha izabelo "ezibalulekile" ezinamathelayo ngisho naphakathi kwamaviki aphansi.
2.2 Imikhawulo Yesakhiwo: Akukho Ukuqiniswa, Akukho Isivuno
Ngokungafani nokubamba amathokheni omdabu ku--chain, abatshalizimali be-ETF abakwazi ukufaka isandla ku-Ethereum noma babambe iqhaza ku-Bitcoin layer‑izinhlelo ezimbili zokukhiqiza. I-Ether iyakhiqiza manje 3.5 - 5 % nge-staking yendabuko; Izinhlelo ze-Bitcoin "zokudlula" kubanakekeli abathile zinikeza <1%, kodwa nalokho kukhishwe ezisongeni ze-ETF. Umehluko wesivuno ucekela phansi isamba semali yokubuyisela ezimotweni ezingenzi lutho, ubuyisela abatshalizimali abasezingeni eliphezulu ku-chain noma ekuhwebeni okumaphakathi okudlula imiklomelo. Umphumela: I-ETHE ye-Grayscale ibone ukuphuma okungapheli-ngaphezulu US$2.9 billion kusukela ngoJulayi 2024-naphezu kwentengo ye-Ethereum ibambe ngenhla US $ 3,100.
2.3 Ukuthatha Inzuzo, Izaphulelo ze-NAV, ne-Arbitrage Pressure
Ngo-March 2024 US$73 k Ukuphakama kwe-Bitcoin kudale igagasi lokuqala lokuthatha inzuzo. Njengoba ukusetshenziswa kwanda, i-GBTC yashwibeka isuka ku-premium eyingxenyana yaya ku-a -1.8 % isaphulelo, ngenkathi i-ETHE ishelela -8.2 %. Abenzi bezimakethe baphikisane nalezi zaphulelo ngokufinyeza ama-ETF nokuthenga indawo, basheshise ukuphuma. IHedge Izimali ziphinde zasebenzisa imali yamabhayisikili kukusasa le-CME ukuze zithwebule ukusabalala kwesisekelo, kuqhubeke nokuqeda i-ETF izimali. Ukudayiswa kwemishini okuhlotshaniswa nokutholwa kombambi qhaza ogunyaziwe kukhuliswe phansi ukungazami, ukushintsha izikhala ezincane ze-NAV zibe ama-spirals aphumayo azigcwalisayo.
2.4 Imimoya emikhulu nelawulayo
I-US enamathelayo ukwehla kwamandla emali aqondene kanye ne-Federal Reserve ephikelela “ekuphakameni isikhathi eside” igcine isivuno sangempela sivuma nge-Q1 2025, sinciphisa ukungakhiqizi. crypto ukulandisa. Ngaleso sikhathi, amacala aqhubekayo e-SEC ngokumelene nokuhwebelana okukhulu kanye nokubambezeleka kweCongress emthethweni wezinhlamvu zemali ezinzile kugcine ifu lokulawula. ingozi. Kwamanye amazwe, eYurophu Markets emithethweni ye-Crypto‑Assets (MiCA) kusafanele ivumelane nezinhlaka zase-US, okukhawulela ukumaketha kwe-ETP emngceleni. Sekukonke, lawa macro-regulatory cross-currents abangela isifiso sokudla njengoba nje ama-ETF elahlekelwa i-premium yawo entsha.
| ETF | Izindleko Isilinganiselo | Imali ekhokhwayo | Isaphulelo/I-Premium (18 Ephreli 2025) | Isivuno Sidlulisiwe? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I-GBTC | 1.50% | None | -1.8 % | Cha |
| I-IBIT | 0.25% | 0.12 % ku-$5 bn yokuqala (izinyanga eziyi-12) | +0.1 % | Cha |
| I-FBTC | 0.25% | Ikhishwe ezinyangeni eziyisi-6 zokuqala | ±0.0 % | Cha |
| Ethe | 1.50% | None | -8.2 % | Cha (angikwazi ukubeka) |
3 I-Market Microstructure kanye Nokuziphatha Kwabatshalizimali
3.1 Ukujikeleza kwesikhungo kanye ne-Hedge-Fund Arbitrage
Inhloko-dolobha ayishiyi i-crypto; liyazungeza. Idatha ye-CME vula inzalo ngemali yekusasa le-Bitcoin ekhuphukela kwirekhodi Izinkontileka ezingama-27,400 on 15 Ephreli 2025- okulingana nokulinganisa 137 000 BTC or US $8.9 billion ngamanani akhona. Ama-akhawunti omphathi wempahla abemade +9,600 izinkontileka ngenkathi i-leveraged-funds ishintsha -11,200 izinkontileka, okubonisa ukuthwala kwakudala‑trade: i-hedge-funds ikusasa elifushane noma ama-ETF futhi uthenge indawo ukuze uvune izinsalela zesisekelo noma izaphulelo ze-NAV. Konke ukusetshenziswa komhlanganyeli ogunyaziwe kusuka ku-GBTC kuletha izinhlamvu zemali ezintsha kuye Arbitrage amadeski, awasebenzisa kabusha ngokushesha endaweni eyinkimbinkimbi yekusasa eliphezulu noma ezindaweni ezihlala ngasogwini. Empeleni, imali esetshenziswayo iyasuka ku-ETF wrapper iye ezindaweni eziphuma kokunye ezingaxhaswa ngemali eshibhile futhi ibekelwe usuku lokuzalwa.
3.2 Imizwa Yokudayisa kanye Nezindaba Zezindaba
-Google Amathrendi we- uthole igama lokusesha "I-Bitcoin ETF" at 100 ngesikhathi sokwethulwa kwesiphithiphithi sikaJanuwari 2024. Inzalo igoqelwe ku 28 ngoDisemba kodwa kwaze kwafika 34 ngo-March 2025—ukunyuka kokuqala okulandelanayo kulo nyaka. Nokho, ithrafikhi ihlala ingaphansi kakhulu kwamazinga adingekayo ukuze kuncishiswe ukuthengiswa kwesikhungo. I-LunarCrush yenkampani ehlaziya imidiya yomphakathi a 61% ukwehla ekukhulunyweni kwe-hashtag (#BitcoinETF, #SpotETF) phakathi kwe-Q2 2024 ne-Q1 2025. Ukusabalala okujwayelekile kuphinde kwasuka ezihlokweni “zokugunyazwa okungokomlando” kuya “kurekhodwa kokuphumayo” kokuzwakala komsindo, ukuphakela iluphu eguqukayo: ukugeleza okungekuhle kuqhuba izindaba ezingezinhle, ezidambisa ukugeleza kokuthengisa kanye nentshiseko.
3.3 I-Liquidity Dynamics: I-Exchanges vs ETF Order Books
Ngomhla ziyi-17 kuMbasa 2025, inzuzo ehlanganisiwe yokushintshaniswa kwendawo (Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, Kraken) yanyatheliswa. US $34 billion, ephakeme kakhulu kusukela ekukhuphukeni kwentengo ka-March, kuyilapho ingqikithi yevolumu kuma-ETF ayishumi e-US Bitcoin spot ETF yayilungile US $2.1 billion, phansi 39% kusukela esilinganisweni sikaFebruwari. I-Coinbase International's Bitcoin perpetuals iyodwa yagijima US $100 billion ngevolumu yombono wamasonto onke, ukuhweba kwe-ETF okuncane. Ukusabalala kokucela ibhidi ngaphakathi kwamabhuku e-oda e-ETF kunwetshiwe 4–6 amaphuzu esisekelo ngezinsuku ezithulile—amaleveli e-Q1 2024 aphindwe kabili—ngoba abenzi bemakethe manje bahlanganisa uhlu lwempahla emachibini ajulile aphuma kwamanye amazwe kunama-ETF ngokwawo. I-illiquidity ehlobene ibuye ihoxise amasu traders, okushiya abanikazi besikhathi eside kuphela ukuthi bathole ukuhlengwa.
| inkomba | Yethula i-Frenzy (Jan 2024) | Okwamanje (18 Apr 2025) | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| I-CME Bitcoin futures open interest | 16 700 izinkontileka | 27 400 izinkontileka | +64 % |
| Isikhundla sensalela yomphathi wefa (CME) | +4 200 izinkontileka | +9 600 izinkontileka | +129 % |
| I-Google Trends – “Bitcoin ETF” | 100 | 34 | -66 % |
| Okushiwo yi-hashtag yomphakathi (#BitcoinETF) | Isisekelo 100 | 39 | -61 % |
| Ivolumu yansuku zonke ye-Spot-exchange | US $22bn | US $34bn | +55 % |
| US Bitcoin ETF ivolumu yansuku zonke | US $5.4bn | US $2.1bn | -61 % |
| Isilinganiso. Ukusabalala kwebhidi ye-ETF | 2-3 bps | 4-6 bps | okubanzi |
I-4 Competitive Landscape ye-Crypto ETFs
4.1 I-Legacy Trusts: Grayscale's GBTC & ETHE
I-Grayscale iguqule ama-trust ayo eshumi leminyaka elidala laba ukuhwebelana‑traded izimali 11 Januwari 2024, ngokushesha ithola isisekelo sempahla enkulu—kodwa futhi isimiso sezinkokhelo esiphezulu semboni (1.50%). Ngemuva kokuguqulwa, i-GBTC isalawula i-Bitcoin enkulu kunazo zonke ephethwe umkhiqizo owodwa (≈ 303 000 BTC kufanelekile ≈ US $21.5 billion) ngisho nangemva kokuphuma okumangalisayo. I-ETHE iseyimoto ye-Ether ehamba phambili ohlwini olusesidlangalaleni (≈ 1.9 million ETH, ≈ US $6 billion AUM) kodwa yopha imali isonto ngalinye njengoba abatshalizimali bevukela kokubili inkokhiso kanye nokungabikho kwesivuno se-on-chain staking.
Isikhangiso seGreyscalevantage ukuqashelwa komkhiqizo; isithende sayo se-Achilles siyizindleko. Izinkokhelo zokuphatha zize zibe ngaphansi 0.30%, abahlaziyi balindele ukugeleza okungaguquguquki kwezinhlamvu zemali eziphuma zibheke ezisongeni ezishibhile.
4.2 Izinselele Zemali Ephansi: I-BlackRock, i-Fidelity, i-Bitwise
BlackRock IBIT setha ithoni ngezwi eliphansi kakhulu 0.25% inkokhelo yesihloko kanye nokuyekwa kwezinyanga eziyishumi nambili okwehlisa ngohhafu i-US $5 billion yokuqala ukuya 0.12%. Ngu 18 Ephreli 2025 isikhwama sihlala ngezansi nje US $23 billion I-AUM, imunca isabelo sebhubesi sokungena kwensalela ngisho naphakathi kwamaviki okungena engcupheni.
I-Fidelity FBTC ikhombisa ezomnotho ze-IBIT (imali engu-0.25 %, ukuyekwa kwezinyanga eziyisithupha) futhi isiqoqiwe ≈ US $15 billion. I-Bitwise BITB wahamba omunye kangcono: a unomphela 0.20% imali—yehlisiwe ukuze 0.00% ku-US $ 1 bhiliyoni wokuqala kuze kube uJanuwari 2026-okuyisiza ukuwela US $5 billion umaka. Le mikhiqizo igwema abahlinzeki besikhathi eside kuphela njengababhalisiwe Investment Abeluleki, abaningi babo abanobuhlakani bokutshala imali kuphela kuma-ETF anezilinganiso zezindleko ezingaphansi kuka-0.40%.
4.3 Ama-Mini Trust, Ama-Derivatives, kanye nama-ETF Asebenzayo e-Crypto ku-Pipeline
Abakhiphi besigaba sesibili baqondise ama-niches: I-ARK 21Shares (ARKB) futhi I-Invesco Galaxy (BTCO) nikeza isikhangiso semali ephansivantages (0.21 %–0.25 %) kanye nezimbondela ze-ESG. I-HODL kaVanEck futhi I-Valkyrie's BRRR zizimakethe njenge "Bitcoin purist" idlala ukuthi ibhalansisa kancane kancane ukuze inciphise ukuhlunga.
Uma sibheka phambili, abafake izicelo abambalwa (uFranklin Templeton, WisdomTree) bafayele "Staking-enabled" Ethereum ETFs engasabalalisa ingxenye yemiklomelo yokuqinisekisa. Ngaleso sikhathi, i-CFTC-regulated futures complex isekela isivuno esikhulayo se-Bitcoin ephethwe isu izimali (isb, I-BITX, I-MAXI) lokho kuguqula phakathi kwekusasa nemali ukuze kwehliswe ukuntengantenga.
| Ticker | Umthumeli | Ukugxila Kwempahla | Usuku lokuqalisa | Izindleko Isilinganiselo | I-AUM (18 Apr 2025) | I-YTD Net Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I-GBTC | I-Grayscale | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 (ukuguqulwa) | 1.50% | US $21.5bn | - US $19.9 bn |
| Ethe | I-Grayscale | Ethereum | 11 Jan 2024 (ukuguqulwa) | 1.50% | US $6.0bn | - US $2.3 bn |
| I-IBIT | BlackRock | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 | 0.25 % (0.12 % ukuyekwa) | US $23.0bn | + US$3.4 bn |
| I-FBTC | Fidelity | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 | 0.25% | US $15.1bn | + US$1.9 bn |
| I-BITB | Kancane kancane | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 | 0.20 % (0 % ukuyekwa ku-US $1 bn) | US $5.2bn | + US$1.2 bn |
| I-ARKB | I-ARK 21Izabelo | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 | 0.21% | US $3.3bn | + US$0.7 bn |
| I-BTCO | I-Invesco Galaxy | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 | 0.25% | US $2.1bn | + US$0.4 bn |
| I-HODL | I-VanEck | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 | 0.20% | US $1.4bn | + US$0.3 bn |
| I-BRRR | Valkyrie | Bitcoin | 11 Jan 2024 | 0.25% | US $0.9bn | + US$0.2 bn |
Lezi zibalo zigqamisa imakethe ehlukene kabili: ifa lithemba imali yokopha ngaphansi kwengcindezi yemali, kuyilapho abangenele imali ephansi bahlanganisa amasheya kanye nemikhiqizo ye-niche ifukamela ama-engeli akhethekile afana ne-ESG noma asebenzayo. ukulawulwa kwezinhlekelele.
5 Ithuba Phakathi Nokuchithwa Kwegazi
5.1 Isaphulelo‑ku-NAV Arbitrage Strategies
Izaphulelo ze -1% ukuya ku-2% ku-GBTC kanye -8 % ku-ETHE ingase ibukeke inesizotha eduze kwezikhala ezinamadijithi amabili enkathi yokuthembana, nokho zisahumushela ku-alpha enengqondo yamadeski e-hedge-fund akwazi ukuthenga amasheya e-ETF, asebenzise izinhlamvu zemali, futhi aqedele ku--chain. Kubatshalizimali bezitolo ngaphandle kokufinyelela komhlanganyeli ogunyaziwe, ukuthenga nje amasheya angaphansi kwenani le-asethi yonke kunikeza umcamelo oshumekiwe ngokumelene nendawo. Ucwaningo lomlando lwe-reversion mean-reversion lubonisa isaphulelo se-GBTC sincipha sibe ngaphansi 0.5% ngesikhathi sokuqhuma kokungena okusha, okusho amandla +150 isisekelo-iphoyinti ukusebenza okungaphandle uma ukugeleza kugeleza. Abatshalizimali kufanele balandelele ukuphakelwa kweprimiyamu/isaphulelo kwansuku zonke kwabakhiphayo namadeshibhodi ezibalo ze-ETF futhi balungele ukushintshanisa imali ngokushesha.
5.2 I-Tax-Loss Harvesting & Portfolio Rebalancing Angles
Cryptocurrency uhlala ngaphandle kwe-US umthetho wokuthengisa, okusho ukuthi umtshali-zimali angakwazi ukuthengisa i-Bitcoin ETF, abone ukulahlekelwa kwekhephithali, futhi ngokushesha athenge kabusha ukuchayeka kwe-Bitcoin—okungaba ngesimbangi esinemali ephansi noma ngokugcinwa okuqondile—ngaphandle kokulinda izinsuku ezingama-30. Lesi sikhala ngokunokwenzeka sizovaleka uma iCongress isivumelanisa i-crypto nomthetho wezibambiso, kodwa kusukela ngo-April 2025 idala inketho yamahhala engavamile yokunciphisa ezinye izinzuzo zika-2025 ngenkathi ihlala itshalwe ngokugcwele. Izabelo eziyinkimbinkimbi zihlanganisa ukuvunwa kokulahlekelwa kanye imali ye-arbitrage: qinisekisa ukulahlekelwa kwe-GBTC, thuthela esikhwameni sika-0.25 %, futhi uthathe kokubili ukonga kwentela kwe-alpha kanye nenkokhelo yonyaka.
5.3 I-Rate‑Cut Tailwinds: Indlela Inqubomgomo Yezimali Ingaphequlula Isikripthi
Izimakethe ze-Futures manje ziyabela ≈ 70 % amathuba okuba yezinga lokuqala le-Federal‑Reserve elinqanyulwe yi- Julayi 2025 Umhlangano we-FOMC, no traders intengo eqongelelwe 50 isisekelo-amaphuzu yokunciphisa ekupheleni konyaka. Isivuno sangempela esiphansi ngokomlando sihambisana nokusebenza okuqinile kwe-crypto njengoba izindleko zethuba zokubamba izimpahla ezingakhiqizi ziwa. Kufanele Iphethwe i-pivot, isabelomali esilele engozini yempesheni kanye nezimali zempahla eningi zingase ziphinde zifakwe kuma-proxies e-crypto angama-liquid amaningi kakhulu—ama-ETF akhona—ukucindezela kabusha izaphulelo nokubuyisela emuva ukuphuma kwe-YTD.
5.4 I-Staking-enabled or Hybrid Funds: I-Next Product Wave?
Ezokulawula umfutho iphakamisa ukuthi isivuno sokudlula akuselona iphupho elikude. Ngo-Ephreli 2025 i-SEC yavuma izichibiyelo ezisalindile ngomusa ukuhlengwa nokubamba iqhaza kuma-ETF ahlongozwayo e-Ethereum avela kwa-Fidelity no-Franklin Templeton, nakuba i-ejensi kusamele isayine. Ukugcwalisa okufanayo kuka-Solana kanye nezimali zezimpahla eziningi "zemali engenayo ye-crypto" zibhekisela ngokusobala imiklomelo yokuqinisekisa. Uma kugunyazwa, lezi zinhlobo ezixutshiwe zizovala igebe lensiza phakathi kobunikazi be-on-chain kanye nama-ETF, okungenzeka kuvulwe umjikelezo omusha wokwabiwa kwempahla—ikakhulukazi kusukela ezikhungweni ezikhawulelwe ezinhlakeni ze-'40 Act.
| kulethe | Isimo Samanje (18 Apr 2025) | 12‑Amathuba ezinyanga | Ongase abe Investor Moves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isaphulelo se-GBTC/ETHE sisho-ukubuyisela | -1 % / -8 % | 60% | Qoqa ngaphansi kwe-NAV; uthango ngekusasa |
| I-wash-sale loophole ilungile | Awukho umthetho wezinsuku ezingama-30 ku-crypto | 50 % amathuba okuvalwa ngo-2026 | Ukulahleka kokuvuna; shintshela ku-ETF yemali ephansi |
| Ukusikwa kwesilinganiso | 70 % amathuba ngo-Jul 2025 | 70% | Khulisa ukuchayeka kwe-crypto cyclical |
| I-Staking-enabled ETFs | I-SEC ibuyekeza amafayili | 40% | Yabela abakhipha imvume kusenesikhathi; i-stake on-chain okwamanje |
6 I-Outlook Yochwepheshe Nokuhlaziywa Kwesimo (2025-2026)
6.1 Isisekelo: Ukuhlanganiswa Kwezinhlangothi
Osomaqhinga abaningi babona isikhathi sokupholisa esikhundleni sokuphahlazeka. Ngaphansi kwalesi simo, inqubomgomo yezimali yase-US iba lula kancane kancane—okukodwa noma okubili 25 isisekelo-amaphuzu ukusikeka kuqala ngasekupheleni‑2025—ukugcina isivuno sangempela sivuma kodwa singajezisi kangako. I-Bitcoin ne-Ethereum ziyazulazula phakathi kwamabanga abanzi wokugunyazwa okuthunyelwe (I-BTC US $55 k–80 k, I-ETH US $2 .7 k–4 k). Ukucindezelwa kwenkokhelo emikhiqizweni yefa kuyaqhubeka, ne-Grayscale ephoqelelwe ngezansi 1.00% nge-Q4 kodwa isalahlekelwa yimpahla enesizotha kontanga eshibhile. Isamba sendawo-ETF igeleza ihamba isondele kuqanda: izinsuku zokuphuma kanye nezinsuku zokuphuma ziyashintshana, okushiya unyaka ogcwele ka-2025 ulinganisela ngemva kokukhipha amanzi ngonya kwe-Q1. Izaphulelo zitholakala ephasejini elincane (GBTC -1 % kuya -0.5 %; ETHE -6 % kuya -4 %) njengoba ababambiqhaza abagunyaziwe babonisa ithuba noma yiziphi izikhala ezibanzi. Imizwa yemakethe isala yakha ngokuqapha, ilindele umfutho—ukucaca okulawulwayo noma ukukhululeka okukhulu—ukuze kuphulwe ububanzi.
6.2 I-Bull Case: Ukucaca Okulawulayo + Ukuhlanganiswa Kwe-Staking + Ukusikwa Kwezinga
I-upside scenario inqwabelanisa imisila emithathu. Okokuqala, iCongress ilandelela ngokushesha uhlaka lwe-bipartisan digital-asset olungafaki engcupheni imithetho yokugcinwa kanye nezibani eziluhlaza okotshani okulinganiselwe ngaphakathi kwezimali ze-'40 Act. Okwesibili, i-Federal Reserve front-loads easing, slicing policy rates by 75 isisekelo-amaphuzu ngaphambi kukaDisemba 2025 kanye nokubonisa ukungathathi hlangothi kweshidi elibhalansi. Ekugcineni, i-SEC igunyaza ukusetshenziswa kwe-Ethereum ETF enomusa futhi ivumela abakhiphile ukuthi badlule emiklomelweni emikhulu. Izikhukhula ezinkulu zibuyile: ukungena kwe-cumulative spot‑ETF kufinyezwa futhi US $25 billion, isula konke ukuphuma kwangaphambilini. Imali ye-GBTC inqunyelwe 0.25% iqeda isaphulelo ngokuphelele, ishayela iphrimiyamu emfushane. I-Bitcoin ikhipha phezulu okusha ngaso sonke isikhathi ngenhla US $95 k, enamavolumu e-on-chain afanekiselwa irekhodi US $9 billion isilinganiso senzuzo yansuku zonke kuwo wonke ama-ETF. Amamodeli esikhungo—ikakhulukazi impesheni yase-US edinga izakhiwo ze-ETF—abe esengeziwe 0.2% ku-crypto kumaphothifoliyo ahlukahlukene, okwenza isigaba sempahla sibe isikhungo.
6.3 I-Bear Case: Ukucishwa Kwengozi Eyandisiwe, Ukucindezelwa Kwemali Nokuphuma Okuningi
Indaba embi ifaka ukwehla kwamandla emali okunamathelayo kanye ne-Fed ebambezela ukwehla kuze kube ngu-2026. Amanani angempela ahlala engaphezulu 2%, amafemu edola, kanye nobungozi bezwe (isb, ukushaqeka kwamandla amasha) kubangela ukuphuma kwempahla engcupheni. Izimpi zezindleko ze-ETF ziyaqina: I-Bitwise inciphisa ku 0.10%, I-Fidelity iyeka izinkokhelo ngomunye unyaka, bese i-Grayscale ivuma 0.25% nokho kusahamba ngokugeleza. Ababambiqhaza abagunyaziwe bahlenga ngokuhlaselayo, bedonsa omunye US $30 billion kusuka kwizimali zeBitcoin kanye US $4 billion kusuka kwizimali ze-Ether. Ngaphandle kwendlela ecacile yokulawula, ama-ETF anikwe amandla aqinile kanye ne-on-chain alternatives hoover liquidity. I-GBTC ne-ETHE zithola izaphulelo ezibanzi (–3 % kanye no -10 % ngokulandelana) kuyilapho i-Bitcoin igiya kuze kube US $42 k kanye ne-Ethereum ukuze US $1.8 k. Ngaphansi kwalokhu kucindezeleka, okungenani umkhiphi omncane oyedwa uvala umkhiqizo wawo ngenxa yesilinganiso esincane esiqhubekayo se-AUM.
| Isimo | Abashayeli Ababalulekile | 2025-End Net ETF Flows | I-BTC Price Range | Intengo ye-ETH | Isaphulelo se-GBTC | Amathuba* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Ukuncishiswa kwe-Fed kancane kancane, ukucindezelwa kwezimali, akukho ukubekelwa phansi | ± US $2 bn | 55 k–80 k | 2.7 k–4 k | -1% ukuya ku-0.5% | 50% |
| Bull | Ukunciphisa okunamandla, ukugunyazwa okuqinile, ukubhaliswa okucacile | + US$25 bn | 80 k–100 k | 4 k–6 k | 0% ukuya ku-+1% | 30% |
| Bear | Akukho ukuncishiswa kwezinga, ukuvala ubungozi emhlabeni jikelele, impi yemali enzima | - US $30 bn | 35 k–55 k | 1.8 k–3 k | -3% ukuya ku-5% | 20% |
7 Uhlelo Lokusebenza lwabatshalizimali
7.1 Uhlu Lokuhlola Okufanelekile Lokuhlola Ama-Crypto ETF
Ngaphambi kokwaba imali entsha—noma ukuzungezisa isonga elibizayo—sebenzisa isikrini esihlelekile:
- Isamba Sezindleko (TER) – qondisa ≤ 0.30 % ukuze uthole ukuchayeka okubalulekile. Njalo umehluko we-bps ongu-10 ubiza ≈ 0.6 % wokusebenza okunqwabelanayo emkhathizwe weminyaka emihlanu.
- I-Premium/Discount Volatility - buyekeza ukuchezuka okumaphakathi kwezinsuku ezingama-30 ku-NAV; ibhendi eqinile (< 0.4 %) ibonisa umsebenzi wombambiqhaza ogunyaziwe onempilo.
- I-Liquidity Metrics – isilinganiso sevolumu yedola yansuku zonke ≥ US $50 wezigidi kanye nokusabalala kwesikrini ≤ 4 bps ukuze kusetshenziswe kahle.
- Umgcini & Umshwalense - qinisekisa ukugcinwa kwamakhaza amaningi noma okuhlukanisiwe, kanye nokufakwa kwenqubomgomo yobugebengu; I-IBIT ne-FBTC zisebenzisa i-Coinbase Custody nomshwalense wokulahlekelwa okweqile kwamaRandi ayizigidi ezingu-200.
- Isakhiwo Sokudala Yabelana - izinto ezidaliwe/ezihlengiwe kunciphisa ukuvuza kwentela; Izinqubo eziwukheshi kuphela zingena ekuhwebeni ngaphakathi kwesikhwama.
- Ipayipi Lokulawula - abakhiphi abanezichibiyelo ezisalindile zokuhlengwa kwe-ETH okunesiteki noma okunomusa bagunyaza inkokhelo eya phambili.
7.2 I-ETF Exposure vs Direct Custody vs Staking Platform
| izimfanelo | I-Spot-Crypto ETF | I-Hardware Wallet Yokuzibamba | Ithokheni ye-On‑Chain Staking/Liquid‑Staking |
|---|---|---|---|
| Veza | Akukho (kuze kunikwe amandla i-staking) | None | 3.5 - 5 % ETH; 2 – 4 % I-SOL |
| Ukucaciswa Kokulawula | Phezulu (SEC-bhalisiwe) | Okulingene (ukuzibika) | Okuphansi kuya kokumaphakathi (kuncike endaweni) |
| Ingozi ephikisana neqembu | Ukuqothuka komgcini + ubungozi bomhlinzeki | Iphutha lomsebenzisi/ukulahleka kwezingxenyekazi zekhompyutha | I-Smart-contract & validator slashing |
| Intela Eyinkimbinkimbi (US) | 1099‑B into yomugqa owodwa | Ifomu 8949 nge-tx ngayinye | Imali engenayo evamile + imicimbi yenzuzo enkulu |
| Kalula Yokusebenzisa | Ukuchofoza kwe-Brokerage | Idinga ukuphathwa kwesikhwama semali | Kuyadingeka Defi ubungcweti |
Isiqondiso: Sebenzisa ama-ETF ukuze uthole ukuchayeka ngaphakathi kwama-akhawunti omhlalaphansi noma abeluleki; ukuzibophezela ekubambeni amasu esikhathi eside; i-on-chain staking yokufuna isivuno, imali ye-tech-savvy.
7.3 Usayizi Wendawo, Izilawuli Zobungozi, kanye Nokulinganisa Kabusha IWindows
- I-Core‑Satellite Framework - isamba semali ye-crypto ku-2 - 5 % ye-diversified iphothifoliyo. Nikeza u-70% walolo cezu kuma-Bitcoin ETFs (umnyombo) kanye no-30% emidlalweni yesathelayithi (i-ETH staking, amathokheni e-liquid-staking, noma ama-alt-ETF e-beta aphezulu).
- I-Volatility Budgeting - ukulinganisa kwengozi okuhlosiwe: nikeza i-crypto notional ukuze i-VaR yansuku zonke ilingane ne-20 % isikhundla sokulingana. Lungisa usayizi wekota ngokusekelwe ekuguquguqukeni okubonakalayo.
- Ukulinganisa kabusha Isheduli - ukulinganisa kabusha kwekota yekhalenda kusho ukubuyisela emuva; izibangeli ze-intra-quarter ku-± 150 bps wesaphulelo sobubanzi be-NAV zingathethelela ubuhlakani trades phakathi kwemikhiqizo.
- Amathuluzi wokumisa-Ukulahlekelwa Nothango - sebenzisa ikusasa le-CME elincane le-Bitcoin ukuze uvikeleke phansi; I-1 BTC micro ilingana no-0.01 BTC, evumela ukumbozwa kwegranular ngokumelene nezikhundla ze-ETF ngaphandle kokubangela izinkinga zokuthengisa ngokuwasha.
7.4 Idatha Egelezayo Nemali-Shintsha Amadeshibhodi Ukuze Aqaphe
- I-CoinShares Weekly Digital-Asset Fund Iyageleza (ishicilelwe ngeMisombuluko) – isifinyezo semvamisa ephezulu sokuziphatha kwesikhungo.
- Ideshibhodi ye-Farside Investors ETF - Ukudala/ukuhlenga kwesikhathi sangempela namashadi e-IBIT, GBTC, FBTC, ETHE, nabanye.
- Itheminali yaseBloomberg Umsebenzi - amamephu okushisa ahlanganisiwe awela indawo kanye nokusabalalisa kwe-NAV.
- Ukufakwa Kwabakhiphi (SEC EDGAR) - landelela izithasiselo ze-S‑1 noma 497K zokuncishiswa kwezindleko nezinguquko zesakhiwo (isb., izichibiyelo ezisalindile).
- On-Chain Glassnode & Dune Analytics Boards - qapha ukunyakaza kohlamvu lwemali lwangemuva kokuhlengwa ukuze uhlole ingcindezi ye-arb.
| I-Archetype ye-Investor | Umgomo Wephothifoliyo | Izimoto ezinconyiwe | Ama-KPI angukhiye ongawabuka | Imvamisa Yesenzo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I-RIA Ezwela Izindleko | Ukuchayeka kwe-Passive BTC ngaphakathi kwe-IRAs | I-IBIT / FBTC (≤ 0.25 % TER) | I-Premium/isaphulelo; izaziso zemali | Ukubuyekezwa kwesigamu sonyaka |
| Ihhovisi Lomndeni le-Yield-Hunter | Inani lokuchayeka kwe-ETH | Linda i-ETF enikwe amandla yi-staking; I-Lido stETH yesikhashana | I-APR eqinile; Umugqa wesikhathi wokugunyaza we-SEC | Monthly |
| I-Tactical Hedge-Fund | I-Discount-capture arbitrage | I-GBTC ende, ikusasa elifushane le-CME BTC | Isaphulelo > 1 %; ukusabalala kwesisekelo | okuqhubekayo |
| I-HODLer yokudayisa | I-crypto sleeve elula "yokuthenga futhi ukhohlwe". | 70 % IBIT, 30 % Cold-wallet ETH | Ukwehla kwezimali; umshwalense wokugcinwa | Ngonyaka |
| Impesheni Eboshelwe Ukuthobela | I-reg-heavy, ummeleli we-liquid | Ubhasikidi omkhulu we-ETF (IBIT, FBTC) | I-liquidity yansuku zonke; I-AUM ≥ US $10 bn | Quarterly |
8 Isiphetho - Ukuphela Okufile Noma Inguqulo 2.0?
8.1 Kusho Ukuthini Ngempela Ukuchithwa Kwegazi Kwango-2025
Unyaka wokuqala we-Crypto ngaphansi kokukhanya kwe-ETF kufakazele izinto ezimbili ngesikhathi esisodwa: intshiseko yabatshalizimali ingenzeka ngesivinini esirekhodiwe, futhi imali ingabaleka ngokushesha lapho ukwakheka, izinkokhelo, kanye nokushayisana okukhulu. Ukuguqulwa okumangalisayo okuvela $10 billion ngoJanuwari 2024 ingena kokuningi $500 million-plus ukuphuma kwamasonto onke ngo-2025 kuyisinqumo esibulalayo esingaphansi kwesigaba sempahla kunokuhlola ukucindezeleka kokulingana kwemakethe yomkhiqizo. Ukugoqa okuphezulu, isivuno esiyiziro, nokungaqiniseki kwenqubomgomo kuguqule iqoqo lokuqala lama-ETF akhona amasondo okuqeqesha-akukabi khona izikhungo zamabhayisikili agijimayo eziwafunayo ekugcineni.
8.2 Izinguquko Sezivele Ziyanyakaza
Ukucindezelwa kwenkokhelo akupheli futhi akulingani: wonke okhiphayo ngezansi 0.30% isaheha izimpahla ezinamathelayo, kuyilapho noma yini engenhla 1% yopha. Abalawuli sebeqalile ukusebenzelana nokuhlenga okunomusa kanye nezinsimbi eziqinile. Izindawo zokuphuma kokunye zimunca imali ama-ETF okusafanele ayibambe kabusha—kodwa lelo gebe lizoncipha uma imikhiqizo ingaletha isivuno nokusabalala okuqinile. I-Macro cross-currents isalokhu ibalulekile: uma i-Federal Reserve ikhombisa umjikelezo wokunciphisa obalulekile, izindleko zamathuba ze-Bitcoin ezingakhiqizi zizowa, kubuyisele ama-ETF aklanywe kahle esikhundleni sokugeleza kwesikhungo.
8.3 Imibuzo Eqondisayo Ngaphambi kokuthi Uchofoze okuthi “Thenga”
Ingabe imali edla i-alpha yakho ishesha ukwedlula uhhafu weBitcoin kudala ukushoda?
Ingabe isikhwama esinikwe amandla noma esihlanganisiwe singashintsha usayizi wesabelo sakho?
Ingakanani i-thesis yakho incike ekusikeni kwe-Fed eseduze—futhi yini i-Plan B uma inqubomgomo ihlala iqinile?
Ingabe ukulungele ukuqapha izaphulelo ze-NAV nsuku zonke, noma ingabe ukusetha-futhi-ukhohlwe ukugcinwa kwelungelo lokuthola imali ngendlela engcono?
8.4 Ukubheka Phambili: Inguqulo 2.0 Playbook
Lindela isizukulwane esilandelayo sama-ETF e-crypto ukuze ufiphaze umugqa phakathi kokuchayeka kanye nokubamba iqhaza kwe-on-chain. Amamodeli ayi-Hybrid adlula ekukhiqizeni okuthe xaxa noma okuhambisanayo, amashejuli emali eguquguqukayo avuza abanikazi besikhathi eside, kanye nokufakwa kuhlu eYurophu nase-Asia kungaguqula ubusha buka-2024 bube yisizinda sephothifoliyo sika-2026. Abatshalizimali ababekezelele ukwehla kwango-2025 bangase bazithole sebengaphambi kwesikhathi lapho inguqulo 2.0 isiqalile—inqobo uma behlala bekhetha, beqaphela imali ekhokhwayo, futhi benolwazi olukhulu.
